Colin, Thunderstorms and the Monsoon

There are a number of forecast problems for today. Let's start with the continental U.S.

Thunderstorms over the Great Lakes - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan - have not been predicted very well by the computer models.  It looks like a potential for another 0.50" to 2.00" over the same area tonight through Wednesday. That will raise the issue of additional flooding.The monsoon is continuing over the West with a daily threat of flash flooding from the heavier thunderstorms. It appears the heaviest rain will fall on Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and eastern Utah through Thursday.

The next forecast issue is tropical storm Colin. Colin is moving and developing as anticipated (so far!).  It looks like it will track across the northeast side of the Bahamas, heading for Jacksonville Florida. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane of 70-80mph. It should curve sharply to the north and northeast as it approaches Florida and Georgia to follow the Gulf Stream. But - if Colin is compact enough it might zip inland and die a quick death ala "Bonnie". We're closely following this situation and feel Wednesday will be decision day.

Which leads us to consider the next storm.
There are two significant tropical waves moving across Africa about 2 days apart. Either one could be the next storm - which would be "Danielle". Our feeling is that the next storm will go across the Caribbean Sea and then move across the Gulf of Mexico.

On the somewhat longer term, we're tackling the abrupt end to summer's heat that is coming up in just 2 weeks. The change will brighten heat-and-humidity weary areas of the country. Our newsletters are the source for that information right now.