Tropical Storm Development is Likely

Thunderstorms will develop into a low pressure center near Apalachicola, Fla. today and rapidly strengthen Monday. The central pressure will reach 1006mb, capable of 40 mph wind, Monday evening. The low will then track westward, offshore, heading to the southeast Louisiana coast. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be 25 miles south of New Orleans with a central pressure of about 1002mb and wind gusts approaching 50 mph. The storm is expected to further strengthen to 998mb Wednesday as it reaches Beaumont, Tex. At that point it will be a strong tropical storm.

The most significant impacts will be on the northwest and west sides of the the storm, after the low pressure center passes. Those areas will contain the strongest wind, and the southerly flow will enhance tide and wave action. Seas offshore Alabama and Louisiana will likely peak at 10 to 15 feet with isolated 20 foot waves.

This will be a very compact storm, so any damage will be limited to about a 25 mile radius of the center. Forecasting its path will be critical to forecasting areas exposed to potential damage. Businesses relying on National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts will likely be caught off guard by this storm - the NHC pegged the probability of development at 20% as of Sunday morning, when the actual likelihood for development is closer to 80% or 90%.