Your Flight is Canceled!

As I saw people waiting impatiently or sleeping at airports around the country early this week, following the Northeast's blizzard, I wondered why anyone would have thought they had the slghtest chance to fly. It was then that I realized that for the average person there really is no way to know if your flight is going to be delayed or canceled.

If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.

I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!

After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.

We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.

We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.

Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.

For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.

Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.

At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.

The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.

Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.

The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.

So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.

A Wintry Mix

You're Headed Where?

It may be an extra-long holiday for parts of the Northeast where a Nor'easter will blow through Sunday and Monday.

The storm will develop Christmas Day off the coast of Georgia, spreading snow along the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Sunday. The storm will barrel toward Boston Sunday night (the image at right is the computer model depiction for 10pm EST Sunday).

New York City, Boston and Providence could get hammered by 15" or more of snow and 50mph wind. There will be a very sharp west edge to the snow, but it does look like most of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine will bear the brunt of the storm.

If the storm wallops New York City and Newark NJ, the impact on the rest of the country's air travelers will be tremendous on Monday. Flights will be delayed and canceled nationwide. If NYC and Newark are spared there will still be delays and cancellations because Boston will be hit hard, but it won't be as bad as having all three out of service.

Holiday Weekend Weather

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Strong Winds

Moisture continues to blow in across California from the Pacific Ocean, dumping about 12 feet of snow at Mammoth Lakes, 12 or more inches of rain at lower elevations state wide, and areas of flooding northward across Washington and Oregon.
More rain and snow will fall today.

The jet stream is cranking along at peak velocities of 150-170mph today. The highest winds will drift eastward as the jet weakens over the western U.S. 

Its going to be a rough ride for airline passengers as the extreme winds migrate to the east. Light to moderate turbulence will be likely over much of the West, Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley through tonight.

New England is under the influence of a low pressure center that's 1000-plus miles out to sea. The low is so broad and so strong that much of New England will see wind gusts of 50 mph through Tuesday evening.

Cold and Snow

I was on Twitter this morning (@Orr_Weather) and saw a post that schools and some public facilities in Glasgow were closing early today because of the cold. I checked it out - oh -  Glasgow, Scotland - not Montana! Schools, libraries, government offices and recreational facilities are closing early today and tomorrow because of the extreme cold. How cold is cold in Scotland? The 3pm (local time) temperature was 17F and the forecast low for tonight is +8, colder away from the city.

The Southeast is going to see a deep freeze Saturday through Tuesday. Florida will have a hard freeze (teens north, 20s south) Sunday night and Monday night.

The weather Sunday and Monday also looks very nasty for New York, New Hampshire and Vermont as a 970mb (28.64") low moves across eastern New England. My best estimate at this early date is for 12-24" of snow (locally 36") and 60mph winds.

The Super-Long Range Forecast

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather

A storm system over the Southwest will bring scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to southern California, Arizona, southern Nevada and New Mexico through tomorrow. There will be pockets of flash flooding and a couple of severe thunderstorms.

The Pacific Northwest will be slammed by the first of a series of storms Saturday night through Monday with winds of 70mph, heavy rain -- and heavy snow above 7000 ft. Expect widespread damage.

There could be heavy snow over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday - with local amounts to 6 inches. Winds of 40-60 mph will buffet the Northern Plains.

Our new extended outlook comes out Friday and will be on a regular Tuesday/Friday update cycle from then on. This outlook will be detailed through 45 days with a general outlook days 46-60.
See OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart for details on the subscription.

Flight Delays

It is looking pretty ugly for E Pennsylvania, SE New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Connecticut for Thursday.  The area will get flooding rain Thursday afternoon and night with rainfall 4+",   locally higher amounts. There will be significant flight delays Thursday afternoon and evening for NYC and Philadelphia airports. I expect to see at least 3 hour delays, which will trickle over to Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, LA and Minneapolis. 

40 to 50mph gusts at NYC terminals will cause delays again Friday morning and afternoon.

The West and Great Plains ridge that has been protecting the U.S. from Pacific storms will break down the last week of October. It looks like Portland and Seattle will get hammered first - and one wonders for how long. It could be for a few weeks.

Heavy Rains and Frosty Temperatures

It is a busy Monday even though it is a holiday. First off, south Florida looks wet all week as the monsoonal low pokes across the western Caribbean Sea all week. The south tip and the Keys will get something more than 5 inches of rain this week.
The NYC, Philadelphia, Newark area could get hammered with rain Thursday and Thursday night with 3+". That's enough to cause urban flooding. The rain, low clouds and strong winds will cause significant flight delays (1 to 3 hours).

Frost and freezing temperatures will cover North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Wednesday morning into Friday morning. Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia could see frost this coming weekend. Frost and freezing temperatures will be more extensive during the last week of October.

Colder Weather is Coming

A friend in Tucson says he turned off the air condition yesterday for the first time since April. The weather pattern  certainly changing with many locales seeing a significant season drop off in temperatures. The first of a couple of storm systems which will draw colder air down from the polar regions is over the Southwest today and will slowly pull into the central part of the country this weekend.

The next series of storm systems are coming across the Pacific Ocean, generally following the path of the colder sea surface temperatures. Each storm system will slap the average temperature across the U.S. down a little more. Snowflakes and ice pellets will fall across the northern Great Lakes next Wednesday and Thursday, while western Canada gets hit with several storms (and a rain/snow mix) over the next 10 days.

The biggest change yet is coming up the last week of the month.

Temps Return to Normal

It was a chilly morning from Missouri to the Great Lakes with areas of frost. The showers over Pennsylvania and New York will continue into Wednesday night with some areas picking up 1.5" or more of rain. Lighter showers will fall over eastern Ohio, West Virginia and Maryland, and across southwest New England.

Showers will also be the rule across the Great Basin, the central and northern Rockies through at least midweek.

The atmosphere is becoming much cooler as much of the U.S. will be seeing the last of the very warm weather this week and next. Temperatures will be settling to near normal or, in a few cases, below normal by the end of next week. Freezes will be commonplace across the Northern Plain, Great Lakes and the Northeast.

Moving Beyond Nicole

TD17, which will soon be tropical storm Nicole, will pass just to the west of Miami this evening. Heavy rains will fall north of this system over eastern and central Florida. Once Nicole merges with a low south of South Carolina later tomorrow, heavy rain will spread up the coast from South Carolina north to NYC and Rhode Island.  Everything has been playing out just about the way it looked when this storm first appeared on the horizon a week ago.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the north half of Michigan. Snow showers are likely over Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Snow will develop over Washington on Monday above 7000 feet.

Tropical Storm and Floods

Here we go with TS Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. At least it should be Nicole, but it will be mixed with some remains of Matthew and largely made up of that gyre we've been talking about for the past few days. The storm should deepen to 990mb before it hits Miami tomorrow and then to about 986mb as it steams toward Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a Wednesday night or Thursday morning landfall there. The strongest wind will be north of the low and that's also where the bulk of the rain will be.


There will be a few large hail and damaging wind reports today from coastal North Carolina to the NYC area and over to Rhode Island. It will be quiet over the rest of the country. They will be dealing with rising flood waters in the Twin Cities area as the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers continue to swell following last week's rains. The water will eventually affect farmland along the Mississippi along the banks of Iowa and Illinois.

Florida Tropical Storms

It looks like the Caribbean Sea is going to active through October and this week's risk of a tropical storm hitting Florida is one a several. This morning's satellite image shows the thunderstorm cluster over the western Caribbean. The cluster is expected to move to the north, reaching Florida Thursday with 3 to 6 inches of rain and gusty east winds to 45 mph.

It appears that another low pressure center will be spun up every couple of days creating a minor problem for forecasters: You don't want to make people apathetic towards tropical storms by naming too many of them and then they turn out to be rather benign.  Floridians will have to get use to a lot of water and areas of flooding.

Rain will be the rule for the East Coast and there will be a small threat of severe thunderstorms from Georgia and far northern Florida to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania today.

Much of the rest of the country is going to have dry weather this week. Just a couple of areas of rain showers will be over the West, with greater amounts over the northern Great Lakes. This dry weather pattern will continue through October 15th.

Flooded Fields and Tropical Storms

The weather event of the day will be the showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast where local 1-2" rainfall will be possible for Georgia, N Florida, Alabama and South Carolina.

The weather event of the week will be the gyre which will develop into a tropical depression near the Cayman Islands late Monday or Tuesday and then track across Florida Thursday. The circulation will be broad with 30 to 40 mph wind developing across Wednesday along with heavy rain. The central pressure will drop to 1000mb or so. It might become a marginal tropical storm. Don't forget - everyone wants a record number of tropical storms this year to re-enforce climate change issues.

The West will be dry and warm, increasing the threat of wildfire. The Upper Midwest will be drying out but many fields are flooded and harvest won't be taking place - at least anytime soon.

Flash Floods and Freezing Weather

We are watching a few things today.
One is the strong potential for flash flooding across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and much of Colorado Wednesday and Wednesday night. Local amounts to 3 inches will be likely in just a couple of hours and that's enough to cause flash flooding.
The storm system moves across the central U.S. Thursday with widespread rain from Kansas and Oklahoma northward. There will be a significant risk of severe thunderstorms across South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Cold air in Canada is becoming more widespread and getting ready to surge to the south.

Temperatures at 850mb are running -6C to -12C across northwest Canada and +3C over Alaska

These are the 850mb temperatures over northwest Canada and Alaska. They've dropped about 6C-9C just in the past two weeks. Some of that air will plummet southward across the eastern half of the U.S. in the next two weeks for the first widespread freeze over the area this fall. We've got the date pretty well nailed down for clients.

The Tropical Cyclones and a Freeze

Ohio is under the gun today with a threat of large hail, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and tornadoes.

That's ahead of one cold front. Another cold front will sweeping out of Canada tomorrow bringing with it a hard freeze to northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota Friday night. Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will have a hard freeze Saturday night.
Tropical storm Karl will reach Tampico around midnight tonight. Hurricane Igor will reach Bermuda Monday and Julia will pick up a little speed as she continues to lag to the east of Igor.

Heavy Rain, Severe Storms and a Freeze

There's all sorts of weather coming up in the next couple of days. Igor is headed for Bermuda this weekend, a small tropical low will move west across the Yucatan Peninsula - and that's just for starters. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight from Oklahoma to southeast Montana. Large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two are the main threats. What may be unusual about this severe weather threat is that it will go well past sunset, which is unusual for this time of year.

There will be areas of heavy rain across the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas of Iowa and Missouri may get as much as 3 inches.

Cold air will be plunging out of Canada for the weekend. A hard freeze is likely across central Canada, eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.