Snow, Rain and Freezes

The Northeast is digging out and another very large storm system is moving into the West. Hard freezes will be felt in L.A. and San Diego, floods and high wind across northern California, Nevada and Arizona, and a Midwest snow storm.

The Next Storm for the West

Even as the Northeast digs out of the post-Christmas blizzard, stormy weather is headed for the West again.
Heavy rain will move into California tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. The San Francisco area will pick up 5 inches of rain. Heavy snow will fall above 5000 feet. The heavy snow will spread across the inter-mountain region on Wednesday while heavier rain moves into Arizona and southern Nevada. Along with all of the moisture the wind will howl.
The storm will move into the Great Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with heavy snow over the central Rockies and Northern Plains. There will also be a lot of wind and blizzard - or near blizzard conditions. Thursday's temperatures will be sharply colder across the Rockies and Northern Plains, too.
And then Minnesota gets whacked (again) on Friday.

The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.

Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.

The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.

So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.

A Wintry Mix

You're Headed Where?

It may be an extra-long holiday for parts of the Northeast where a Nor'easter will blow through Sunday and Monday.

The storm will develop Christmas Day off the coast of Georgia, spreading snow along the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Sunday. The storm will barrel toward Boston Sunday night (the image at right is the computer model depiction for 10pm EST Sunday).

New York City, Boston and Providence could get hammered by 15" or more of snow and 50mph wind. There will be a very sharp west edge to the snow, but it does look like most of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine will bear the brunt of the storm.

If the storm wallops New York City and Newark NJ, the impact on the rest of the country's air travelers will be tremendous on Monday. Flights will be delayed and canceled nationwide. If NYC and Newark are spared there will still be delays and cancellations because Boston will be hit hard, but it won't be as bad as having all three out of service.

Holiday Weekend Weather

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Cold and Snow

I was on Twitter this morning (@Orr_Weather) and saw a post that schools and some public facilities in Glasgow were closing early today because of the cold. I checked it out - oh -  Glasgow, Scotland - not Montana! Schools, libraries, government offices and recreational facilities are closing early today and tomorrow because of the extreme cold. How cold is cold in Scotland? The 3pm (local time) temperature was 17F and the forecast low for tonight is +8, colder away from the city.

The Southeast is going to see a deep freeze Saturday through Tuesday. Florida will have a hard freeze (teens north, 20s south) Sunday night and Monday night.

The weather Sunday and Monday also looks very nasty for New York, New Hampshire and Vermont as a 970mb (28.64") low moves across eastern New England. My best estimate at this early date is for 12-24" of snow (locally 36") and 60mph winds.

A Stormy Start for the Week

Monday and Tuesday will be busy weather days even though this depiction of the surface weather (the Sunday afternoon GFS) doesn't look impressive with a low near Omaha at noon Monday.

But there will be an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Louisiana, Mississippi and southern Alabama Monday afternoon and night with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. It looks like there will be short lines of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain (2-3") will fall over eastern Arkansas, Mississippi and western Tennessee. The rain will be enough to cause flooding. The heavy rain will be over eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, Alabama and northwest Georgia on Tuesday -- and there will be a lot of flooding there.

Meanwhile the Northern Plains will get some heavy snow Monday and the Upper Mississippi Valley will get blasted on Tuesday. Many areas will have 3-6" of snow and 35 mph wind. Western Minnesota and eastern South Dakota may pick up 10" of snow with the same for the Black Hills of South Dakota.

Washington State gets whacked Monday night and Tuesday with 2 to 4 inches of rain below 4500 feet and 2 to 3 feet of snow above 5000 feet.

The Super-Long Range Forecast

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather

A storm system over the Southwest will bring scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to southern California, Arizona, southern Nevada and New Mexico through tomorrow. There will be pockets of flash flooding and a couple of severe thunderstorms.

The Pacific Northwest will be slammed by the first of a series of storms Saturday night through Monday with winds of 70mph, heavy rain -- and heavy snow above 7000 ft. Expect widespread damage.

There could be heavy snow over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday - with local amounts to 6 inches. Winds of 40-60 mph will buffet the Northern Plains.

Our new extended outlook comes out Friday and will be on a regular Tuesday/Friday update cycle from then on. This outlook will be detailed through 45 days with a general outlook days 46-60.
See OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart for details on the subscription.

Heavy Snow for East New York & Vermont

3 to 6" snow will fall Friday afternoon through early Saturday across eastern New York and Vermont. Wind gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday night, so expect a lot of tree limb and power line damage.

Temperatures at 850mb (5500 ft) are expected to drop to -3C which should be good enough for precipitation to be all snow late Friday into Saturday morning. The local NWS office is talking about the winter storm watch being for elevations above 2000 feet, but it looks like snow levels will easily be lower than that.

Changes in Our Forecast Services

We upgraded some of forecast services this week because you are important to us and we believe it will make it easier for you.

Our personal weather service now automatically comes with a web page and unique URL. (This used to be an option.) The page will include your 5 day forecast and a link to the 30-day outlook, plus some other features. You can still have the forecast sent to your Facebook, Twitter or email.

All of our web, email, text forecasts are updated by 5am each morning. Now we are toying with making the call-in feature available earlier in the day. That decision may come next month.

Occasionally we have special climate and weather reports. Those will now be available to more of you, as will our newsletter. Special requests for climate data and requests for reconstructing weather events are assumed to be court related and are handled on a case-by-case basis.

Stay tuned for more upgrades as they happen!

Flight Delays

It is looking pretty ugly for E Pennsylvania, SE New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Connecticut for Thursday.  The area will get flooding rain Thursday afternoon and night with rainfall 4+",   locally higher amounts. There will be significant flight delays Thursday afternoon and evening for NYC and Philadelphia airports. I expect to see at least 3 hour delays, which will trickle over to Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, LA and Minneapolis. 

40 to 50mph gusts at NYC terminals will cause delays again Friday morning and afternoon.

The West and Great Plains ridge that has been protecting the U.S. from Pacific storms will break down the last week of October. It looks like Portland and Seattle will get hammered first - and one wonders for how long. It could be for a few weeks.

Heavy Rains and Frosty Temperatures

It is a busy Monday even though it is a holiday. First off, south Florida looks wet all week as the monsoonal low pokes across the western Caribbean Sea all week. The south tip and the Keys will get something more than 5 inches of rain this week.
The NYC, Philadelphia, Newark area could get hammered with rain Thursday and Thursday night with 3+". That's enough to cause urban flooding. The rain, low clouds and strong winds will cause significant flight delays (1 to 3 hours).

Frost and freezing temperatures will cover North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Wednesday morning into Friday morning. Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia could see frost this coming weekend. Frost and freezing temperatures will be more extensive during the last week of October.

Colder Weather is Coming

A friend in Tucson says he turned off the air condition yesterday for the first time since April. The weather pattern  certainly changing with many locales seeing a significant season drop off in temperatures. The first of a couple of storm systems which will draw colder air down from the polar regions is over the Southwest today and will slowly pull into the central part of the country this weekend.

The next series of storm systems are coming across the Pacific Ocean, generally following the path of the colder sea surface temperatures. Each storm system will slap the average temperature across the U.S. down a little more. Snowflakes and ice pellets will fall across the northern Great Lakes next Wednesday and Thursday, while western Canada gets hit with several storms (and a rain/snow mix) over the next 10 days.

The biggest change yet is coming up the last week of the month.

Temps Return to Normal

It was a chilly morning from Missouri to the Great Lakes with areas of frost. The showers over Pennsylvania and New York will continue into Wednesday night with some areas picking up 1.5" or more of rain. Lighter showers will fall over eastern Ohio, West Virginia and Maryland, and across southwest New England.

Showers will also be the rule across the Great Basin, the central and northern Rockies through at least midweek.

The atmosphere is becoming much cooler as much of the U.S. will be seeing the last of the very warm weather this week and next. Temperatures will be settling to near normal or, in a few cases, below normal by the end of next week. Freezes will be commonplace across the Northern Plain, Great Lakes and the Northeast.

Moving Beyond Nicole

TD17, which will soon be tropical storm Nicole, will pass just to the west of Miami this evening. Heavy rains will fall north of this system over eastern and central Florida. Once Nicole merges with a low south of South Carolina later tomorrow, heavy rain will spread up the coast from South Carolina north to NYC and Rhode Island.  Everything has been playing out just about the way it looked when this storm first appeared on the horizon a week ago.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the north half of Michigan. Snow showers are likely over Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Snow will develop over Washington on Monday above 7000 feet.

Tropical Storm and Floods

Here we go with TS Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. At least it should be Nicole, but it will be mixed with some remains of Matthew and largely made up of that gyre we've been talking about for the past few days. The storm should deepen to 990mb before it hits Miami tomorrow and then to about 986mb as it steams toward Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a Wednesday night or Thursday morning landfall there. The strongest wind will be north of the low and that's also where the bulk of the rain will be.


There will be a few large hail and damaging wind reports today from coastal North Carolina to the NYC area and over to Rhode Island. It will be quiet over the rest of the country. They will be dealing with rising flood waters in the Twin Cities area as the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers continue to swell following last week's rains. The water will eventually affect farmland along the Mississippi along the banks of Iowa and Illinois.

Florida Tropical Storms

It looks like the Caribbean Sea is going to active through October and this week's risk of a tropical storm hitting Florida is one a several. This morning's satellite image shows the thunderstorm cluster over the western Caribbean. The cluster is expected to move to the north, reaching Florida Thursday with 3 to 6 inches of rain and gusty east winds to 45 mph.

It appears that another low pressure center will be spun up every couple of days creating a minor problem for forecasters: You don't want to make people apathetic towards tropical storms by naming too many of them and then they turn out to be rather benign.  Floridians will have to get use to a lot of water and areas of flooding.

Rain will be the rule for the East Coast and there will be a small threat of severe thunderstorms from Georgia and far northern Florida to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania today.

Much of the rest of the country is going to have dry weather this week. Just a couple of areas of rain showers will be over the West, with greater amounts over the northern Great Lakes. This dry weather pattern will continue through October 15th.

Flooded Fields and Tropical Storms

The weather event of the day will be the showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast where local 1-2" rainfall will be possible for Georgia, N Florida, Alabama and South Carolina.

The weather event of the week will be the gyre which will develop into a tropical depression near the Cayman Islands late Monday or Tuesday and then track across Florida Thursday. The circulation will be broad with 30 to 40 mph wind developing across Wednesday along with heavy rain. The central pressure will drop to 1000mb or so. It might become a marginal tropical storm. Don't forget - everyone wants a record number of tropical storms this year to re-enforce climate change issues.

The West will be dry and warm, increasing the threat of wildfire. The Upper Midwest will be drying out but many fields are flooded and harvest won't be taking place - at least anytime soon.