Your Flight is Canceled!

As I saw people waiting impatiently or sleeping at airports around the country early this week, following the Northeast's blizzard, I wondered why anyone would have thought they had the slghtest chance to fly. It was then that I realized that for the average person there really is no way to know if your flight is going to be delayed or canceled.

If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.

I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!

After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.

We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.

We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.

Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.

For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.

Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.

At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.

The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.

Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.

The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.

So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.

Holiday Weekend Weather

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The Super-Long Range Forecast

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather

A storm system over the Southwest will bring scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to southern California, Arizona, southern Nevada and New Mexico through tomorrow. There will be pockets of flash flooding and a couple of severe thunderstorms.

The Pacific Northwest will be slammed by the first of a series of storms Saturday night through Monday with winds of 70mph, heavy rain -- and heavy snow above 7000 ft. Expect widespread damage.

There could be heavy snow over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday - with local amounts to 6 inches. Winds of 40-60 mph will buffet the Northern Plains.

Our new extended outlook comes out Friday and will be on a regular Tuesday/Friday update cycle from then on. This outlook will be detailed through 45 days with a general outlook days 46-60.
See OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart for details on the subscription.

Changes in Our Forecast Services

We upgraded some of forecast services this week because you are important to us and we believe it will make it easier for you.

Our personal weather service now automatically comes with a web page and unique URL. (This used to be an option.) The page will include your 5 day forecast and a link to the 30-day outlook, plus some other features. You can still have the forecast sent to your Facebook, Twitter or email.

All of our web, email, text forecasts are updated by 5am each morning. Now we are toying with making the call-in feature available earlier in the day. That decision may come next month.

Occasionally we have special climate and weather reports. Those will now be available to more of you, as will our newsletter. Special requests for climate data and requests for reconstructing weather events are assumed to be court related and are handled on a case-by-case basis.

Stay tuned for more upgrades as they happen!

Flight Delays

It is looking pretty ugly for E Pennsylvania, SE New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Connecticut for Thursday.  The area will get flooding rain Thursday afternoon and night with rainfall 4+",   locally higher amounts. There will be significant flight delays Thursday afternoon and evening for NYC and Philadelphia airports. I expect to see at least 3 hour delays, which will trickle over to Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, LA and Minneapolis. 

40 to 50mph gusts at NYC terminals will cause delays again Friday morning and afternoon.

The West and Great Plains ridge that has been protecting the U.S. from Pacific storms will break down the last week of October. It looks like Portland and Seattle will get hammered first - and one wonders for how long. It could be for a few weeks.

Heavy Rains and Frosty Temperatures

It is a busy Monday even though it is a holiday. First off, south Florida looks wet all week as the monsoonal low pokes across the western Caribbean Sea all week. The south tip and the Keys will get something more than 5 inches of rain this week.
The NYC, Philadelphia, Newark area could get hammered with rain Thursday and Thursday night with 3+". That's enough to cause urban flooding. The rain, low clouds and strong winds will cause significant flight delays (1 to 3 hours).

Frost and freezing temperatures will cover North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Wednesday morning into Friday morning. Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia could see frost this coming weekend. Frost and freezing temperatures will be more extensive during the last week of October.

Colder Weather is Coming

A friend in Tucson says he turned off the air condition yesterday for the first time since April. The weather pattern  certainly changing with many locales seeing a significant season drop off in temperatures. The first of a couple of storm systems which will draw colder air down from the polar regions is over the Southwest today and will slowly pull into the central part of the country this weekend.

The next series of storm systems are coming across the Pacific Ocean, generally following the path of the colder sea surface temperatures. Each storm system will slap the average temperature across the U.S. down a little more. Snowflakes and ice pellets will fall across the northern Great Lakes next Wednesday and Thursday, while western Canada gets hit with several storms (and a rain/snow mix) over the next 10 days.

The biggest change yet is coming up the last week of the month.

Moving Beyond Nicole

TD17, which will soon be tropical storm Nicole, will pass just to the west of Miami this evening. Heavy rains will fall north of this system over eastern and central Florida. Once Nicole merges with a low south of South Carolina later tomorrow, heavy rain will spread up the coast from South Carolina north to NYC and Rhode Island.  Everything has been playing out just about the way it looked when this storm first appeared on the horizon a week ago.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the north half of Michigan. Snow showers are likely over Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Snow will develop over Washington on Monday above 7000 feet.

Tropical Storm and Floods

Here we go with TS Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. At least it should be Nicole, but it will be mixed with some remains of Matthew and largely made up of that gyre we've been talking about for the past few days. The storm should deepen to 990mb before it hits Miami tomorrow and then to about 986mb as it steams toward Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a Wednesday night or Thursday morning landfall there. The strongest wind will be north of the low and that's also where the bulk of the rain will be.


There will be a few large hail and damaging wind reports today from coastal North Carolina to the NYC area and over to Rhode Island. It will be quiet over the rest of the country. They will be dealing with rising flood waters in the Twin Cities area as the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers continue to swell following last week's rains. The water will eventually affect farmland along the Mississippi along the banks of Iowa and Illinois.

Florida Tropical Storms

It looks like the Caribbean Sea is going to active through October and this week's risk of a tropical storm hitting Florida is one a several. This morning's satellite image shows the thunderstorm cluster over the western Caribbean. The cluster is expected to move to the north, reaching Florida Thursday with 3 to 6 inches of rain and gusty east winds to 45 mph.

It appears that another low pressure center will be spun up every couple of days creating a minor problem for forecasters: You don't want to make people apathetic towards tropical storms by naming too many of them and then they turn out to be rather benign.  Floridians will have to get use to a lot of water and areas of flooding.

Rain will be the rule for the East Coast and there will be a small threat of severe thunderstorms from Georgia and far northern Florida to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania today.

Much of the rest of the country is going to have dry weather this week. Just a couple of areas of rain showers will be over the West, with greater amounts over the northern Great Lakes. This dry weather pattern will continue through October 15th.

Flooded Fields and Tropical Storms

The weather event of the day will be the showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast where local 1-2" rainfall will be possible for Georgia, N Florida, Alabama and South Carolina.

The weather event of the week will be the gyre which will develop into a tropical depression near the Cayman Islands late Monday or Tuesday and then track across Florida Thursday. The circulation will be broad with 30 to 40 mph wind developing across Wednesday along with heavy rain. The central pressure will drop to 1000mb or so. It might become a marginal tropical storm. Don't forget - everyone wants a record number of tropical storms this year to re-enforce climate change issues.

The West will be dry and warm, increasing the threat of wildfire. The Upper Midwest will be drying out but many fields are flooded and harvest won't be taking place - at least anytime soon.

A Forecast Revolution

I am taking weather forecasting to a new level - a personal level.

I have forecast weather for major motion pictures, television, radio, ski resorts, airlines, corporate jets and construction projects worldwide. Now I want to let you see what it is like to have your personal meteorologist.

Get my personal weather forecast by email, text message, Twitter direct message or on Facebook, plus I'll give you a phone number so you can call and ask questions. I'll tell you when it will start to rain, when it will stop, how much will fall, the temperature, cloud cover and more. You won't have to wonder if that forecast for a 20% chance of rain really means it will rain.

And if you are going on vacation, there's no location too remote. I have forecast for small countries in Africa and remote Pacific Islands, for suburbs of big cities and area as small as 1 square mile.

If you trade the futures markets, I can help you with 90- and 180-day forecasts. Many of my 30 years as a meteorologist have been spent forecasting for cash crops.

Instead of watching the TV -- or listening to the radio -- or searching the Internet for tomorrow's weather forecast. knowing it may not be right anyway, get the forecast directly from me. It will always be current and it will always have enough detail for you to make a decision.

The Tropical Cyclones and a Freeze

Ohio is under the gun today with a threat of large hail, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and tornadoes.

That's ahead of one cold front. Another cold front will sweeping out of Canada tomorrow bringing with it a hard freeze to northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota Friday night. Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will have a hard freeze Saturday night.
Tropical storm Karl will reach Tampico around midnight tonight. Hurricane Igor will reach Bermuda Monday and Julia will pick up a little speed as she continues to lag to the east of Igor.

Heavy Rain, Severe Storms and a Freeze

There's all sorts of weather coming up in the next couple of days. Igor is headed for Bermuda this weekend, a small tropical low will move west across the Yucatan Peninsula - and that's just for starters. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight from Oklahoma to southeast Montana. Large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two are the main threats. What may be unusual about this severe weather threat is that it will go well past sunset, which is unusual for this time of year.

There will be areas of heavy rain across the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas of Iowa and Missouri may get as much as 3 inches.

Cold air will be plunging out of Canada for the weekend. A hard freeze is likely across central Canada, eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

On Igor and Freezes

Igor is churning over the central Atlantic Ocean today at about 15 mph. The eye is clearly visible on this morning's satellite image - and as hurricane's go it is a large storm, requiring ships to give it a wide berth.

Right now it looks like Igor will make a turn to the northwest and head towards Bermuda arriving there Friday. It will then swing up towards Newfoundland for the weekend. The storm will miss the U.S. but it will affect fishing waters. Igor will then get caught up in the larger area of low pressure over northeast Canada, intensifying the flow of cool air around the backside of the low across western and Central Canada. The threat for freezing temperatures will increase across the northern U.S. through September 23rd, which isn't abnormal for this time of year but it is a call to action for farmers who might not want their cash crops to freeze in the field later this month.

In the longer term, tropical storm formation will continue to be a threat for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea through early October.  Also, a more significant blast of cold air will approach the U.S. during the second week of October, which may lead to some our first significant snowfalls of the season.

In case you missed it we rolled out new product options last week. Check them out at our online checkout at www.TheOrrStore.com .

Rain Over Texas, Cool Northwest

A quick-moving storm system will zip from the Great Lakes across New England this week bringing (behind hit) a quick punch of chilly air. Meanwhile, much of the Pacific Northwest will be cooler than normal with widely scattered rain showers. A few snow showers will be likely above 9000 feet. Let the snow season begin.

Hermine is going to spread large quantities of rain across the eastern 2/3rds of Texas today. Some areas will see at least 4" of rain in addition to what has already fallen.

The low pressure center itself will track to the north passing just west of Dallas, then loop up across Oklahoma and wind up over Illinois later Thursday and Friday. Moderate rains of 2-4" will fall all along the path.

If you are so inclined, the area where you can subscribe to our services has two features this week. The first one is our monthly service and if you subscribe we'll send you a 4" diameter rain gauge. They are much more accurate than the little lawn or garden rain gauges. The second feature are our t-shirts, mugs, hoodies and more. You can find both at www.TheOrrStore.com .

Earl Will Leave Scars Along the East Coast

Hurricane Earl's eye filled in a little overnight but it is still steaming along at about 30N 75W with winds of 145 mph. Earl will start affecting the Outer Banks around noon EDT, wind gusts will increase to 90 mph on the islands, and rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches. The storm will be over for North Carolia around 6am Friday. The impact farther west will be not be great. Offshore, the storm has been around enough that swells are easily 60 feet.

Earl continues north tomorrow impacting the Delmarva peninsula until 6pm. Winds will be gusting to 80 mph and rainfall may reach 12 inches in as many hours. Long Island will feel the impact by 2pm Friday and then it will hit CT, MA and RI shortly thereafter. 10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 65 mph will be likely, except higher wind gusts will be felt on the east end of Long Island and Cape Cod. The rain spreads across New Hampshire and Maine Friday night with the highest winds along the coast of Maine.Beach erosion will likely be a huge problem with Earl. The wave action is going to be tremendous.
More on the rest of the U.S. later.

We have a new "on-call" service available for those of you who don't need a full-blown weather service but might need a little weather information from time to time.

Earl May Have Issues

Hurricane Earl is east of the Turks and headed to the northwest. By Thursday night it will be bearing down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with 90mph winds. From there, Earl will head for Long Island, Providence and Boston Friday through Saturday, lashing those areas with heavy rain and wind gusts of about 60 to 70 mph. 

High surf and beach erosion will be the biggest issue from the Outer Banks to the tip of Maine.

Some sector impacts:
Retail:  If the National Weather Service is fairly liberal about issuing hurricane watches and warnings, items such as plywood, duct tape, bottled water and water in 1 gallon jugs, gasoline, generators and batteries will fly off the shelf. Labor Day store sales of clothing could suffer.

Energy: Again, if the National Weather Service splashes hurricane watches and warning up the East Coast, gasoline will probably fall in short supply in some areas as some people gas up and head inland. This will be especially true should hurricane watches and warning be posted from New Jersey to Maine.

Agriculture: New England crops have been running ahead of schedule and perhaps early harvest will save any commodities grown within 25 miles of the coast. Those areas will be prone to heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches if Earl is close enough to shore.

Aviation: The greatest impact will be on overseas flights which may have some problems getting around Earl Friday and Saturday. Airports most likely affected will be Dulles, Baltimore, JFK and Boston. Reagan National, Newark and LaGuardia will have fewer issues because of the domestic nature of their operations. However, airlines who rely on government weather forecasts may have to delay or cancel flights depending on forecast conditions, while airlines with meteorologists on staff may keep flying.