THE INSIDE STORY OF METEOROLOGY
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Stormier and Warmer Weather
Warmer weather is in store for the Great Plains while a series of storm systems blast the Pacific Northwest.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
New for 2011
Here it is 27 days into 2011 and I am finally posting the "what's new" for the year.
First, this blog will be a mix of the upcoming big weather stories for the next couple of days and weather forecasting tips.
Second, a v-blog will be a regular feature covering both upcoming severe weather (generally tomorrow and the next day) and travel weather. We get some nice advertisers for the videos so it is worthwhile doing them.
Third, we'll continue to offer the weather forecast services at OrrWeather.com . That's not big news, but I just to let you know about them.
Finally, we're working on holding 2 forecast workshops - one in the Fall 2011 and one in the late Spring 2012. Tourism drives hotel prices sky high in the summer ($99 a night and up), but in the Fall and Spring rooms go for $39 to $59 a night. Rapid City, South Dakota is served by non-stop service between Salt Lake City, Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Minneapolis and Chicago.
These workshops will be an intense 8 hours a day for 3 days, and likely limited to 10 people each. We'll cover flash floods, hurricanes, ice storms and 60 day weather outlooks. Similar limited gatherings price out at $4,999. These will be $1,998 and include all materials and two meals each day. You'll be able to charge it on your credit card or make payments. Look for details next week at OrrWeather.com .
That's what's new. Should there be more?
First, this blog will be a mix of the upcoming big weather stories for the next couple of days and weather forecasting tips.
Second, a v-blog will be a regular feature covering both upcoming severe weather (generally tomorrow and the next day) and travel weather. We get some nice advertisers for the videos so it is worthwhile doing them.
Third, we'll continue to offer the weather forecast services at OrrWeather.com . That's not big news, but I just to let you know about them.
Finally, we're working on holding 2 forecast workshops - one in the Fall 2011 and one in the late Spring 2012. Tourism drives hotel prices sky high in the summer ($99 a night and up), but in the Fall and Spring rooms go for $39 to $59 a night. Rapid City, South Dakota is served by non-stop service between Salt Lake City, Denver, Las Vegas, Phoenix, Dallas, Minneapolis and Chicago.
These workshops will be an intense 8 hours a day for 3 days, and likely limited to 10 people each. We'll cover flash floods, hurricanes, ice storms and 60 day weather outlooks. Similar limited gatherings price out at $4,999. These will be $1,998 and include all materials and two meals each day. You'll be able to charge it on your credit card or make payments. Look for details next week at OrrWeather.com .
That's what's new. Should there be more?
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Your Flight is Canceled!
As I saw people waiting impatiently or sleeping at airports around the country early this week, following the Northeast's blizzard, I wondered why anyone would have thought they had the slghtest chance to fly. It was then that I realized that for the average person there really is no way to know if your flight is going to be delayed or canceled.
If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.
I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!
After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.
We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.
We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.
Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.
For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.
Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.
At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.
If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!
After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.
We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.
We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.
Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.
For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.
Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.
At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Snow, Rain and Freezes
The Northeast is digging out and another very large storm system is moving into the West. Hard freezes will be felt in L.A. and San Diego, floods and high wind across northern California, Nevada and Arizona, and a Midwest snow storm.
Monday, December 27, 2010
The Next Storm for the West
Even as the Northeast digs out of the post-Christmas blizzard, stormy weather is headed for the West again.
Heavy rain will move into California tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. The San Francisco area will pick up 5 inches of rain. Heavy snow will fall above 5000 feet. The heavy snow will spread across the inter-mountain region on Wednesday while heavier rain moves into Arizona and southern Nevada. Along with all of the moisture the wind will howl.
The storm will move into the Great Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with heavy snow over the central Rockies and Northern Plains. There will also be a lot of wind and blizzard - or near blizzard conditions. Thursday's temperatures will be sharply colder across the Rockies and Northern Plains, too.
And then Minnesota gets whacked (again) on Friday.
Heavy rain will move into California tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. The San Francisco area will pick up 5 inches of rain. Heavy snow will fall above 5000 feet. The heavy snow will spread across the inter-mountain region on Wednesday while heavier rain moves into Arizona and southern Nevada. Along with all of the moisture the wind will howl.
The storm will move into the Great Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with heavy snow over the central Rockies and Northern Plains. There will also be a lot of wind and blizzard - or near blizzard conditions. Thursday's temperatures will be sharply colder across the Rockies and Northern Plains, too.
And then Minnesota gets whacked (again) on Friday.
Sunday, December 26, 2010
The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.
Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.
The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.
So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.
Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.
The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.
So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.
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