The Super-Long Range Forecast

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather

A storm system over the Southwest will bring scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to southern California, Arizona, southern Nevada and New Mexico through tomorrow. There will be pockets of flash flooding and a couple of severe thunderstorms.

The Pacific Northwest will be slammed by the first of a series of storms Saturday night through Monday with winds of 70mph, heavy rain -- and heavy snow above 7000 ft. Expect widespread damage.

There could be heavy snow over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday - with local amounts to 6 inches. Winds of 40-60 mph will buffet the Northern Plains.

Our new extended outlook comes out Friday and will be on a regular Tuesday/Friday update cycle from then on. This outlook will be detailed through 45 days with a general outlook days 46-60.
See OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart for details on the subscription.

Heavy Snow for East New York & Vermont

3 to 6" snow will fall Friday afternoon through early Saturday across eastern New York and Vermont. Wind gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday night, so expect a lot of tree limb and power line damage.

Temperatures at 850mb (5500 ft) are expected to drop to -3C which should be good enough for precipitation to be all snow late Friday into Saturday morning. The local NWS office is talking about the winter storm watch being for elevations above 2000 feet, but it looks like snow levels will easily be lower than that.

Changes in Our Forecast Services

We upgraded some of forecast services this week because you are important to us and we believe it will make it easier for you.

Our personal weather service now automatically comes with a web page and unique URL. (This used to be an option.) The page will include your 5 day forecast and a link to the 30-day outlook, plus some other features. You can still have the forecast sent to your Facebook, Twitter or email.

All of our web, email, text forecasts are updated by 5am each morning. Now we are toying with making the call-in feature available earlier in the day. That decision may come next month.

Occasionally we have special climate and weather reports. Those will now be available to more of you, as will our newsletter. Special requests for climate data and requests for reconstructing weather events are assumed to be court related and are handled on a case-by-case basis.

Stay tuned for more upgrades as they happen!

Flight Delays

It is looking pretty ugly for E Pennsylvania, SE New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Connecticut for Thursday.  The area will get flooding rain Thursday afternoon and night with rainfall 4+",   locally higher amounts. There will be significant flight delays Thursday afternoon and evening for NYC and Philadelphia airports. I expect to see at least 3 hour delays, which will trickle over to Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, LA and Minneapolis. 

40 to 50mph gusts at NYC terminals will cause delays again Friday morning and afternoon.

The West and Great Plains ridge that has been protecting the U.S. from Pacific storms will break down the last week of October. It looks like Portland and Seattle will get hammered first - and one wonders for how long. It could be for a few weeks.

Heavy Rains and Frosty Temperatures

It is a busy Monday even though it is a holiday. First off, south Florida looks wet all week as the monsoonal low pokes across the western Caribbean Sea all week. The south tip and the Keys will get something more than 5 inches of rain this week.
The NYC, Philadelphia, Newark area could get hammered with rain Thursday and Thursday night with 3+". That's enough to cause urban flooding. The rain, low clouds and strong winds will cause significant flight delays (1 to 3 hours).

Frost and freezing temperatures will cover North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Wednesday morning into Friday morning. Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia could see frost this coming weekend. Frost and freezing temperatures will be more extensive during the last week of October.

Colder Weather is Coming

A friend in Tucson says he turned off the air condition yesterday for the first time since April. The weather pattern  certainly changing with many locales seeing a significant season drop off in temperatures. The first of a couple of storm systems which will draw colder air down from the polar regions is over the Southwest today and will slowly pull into the central part of the country this weekend.

The next series of storm systems are coming across the Pacific Ocean, generally following the path of the colder sea surface temperatures. Each storm system will slap the average temperature across the U.S. down a little more. Snowflakes and ice pellets will fall across the northern Great Lakes next Wednesday and Thursday, while western Canada gets hit with several storms (and a rain/snow mix) over the next 10 days.

The biggest change yet is coming up the last week of the month.

Temps Return to Normal

It was a chilly morning from Missouri to the Great Lakes with areas of frost. The showers over Pennsylvania and New York will continue into Wednesday night with some areas picking up 1.5" or more of rain. Lighter showers will fall over eastern Ohio, West Virginia and Maryland, and across southwest New England.

Showers will also be the rule across the Great Basin, the central and northern Rockies through at least midweek.

The atmosphere is becoming much cooler as much of the U.S. will be seeing the last of the very warm weather this week and next. Temperatures will be settling to near normal or, in a few cases, below normal by the end of next week. Freezes will be commonplace across the Northern Plain, Great Lakes and the Northeast.