Earl May Have Issues

Hurricane Earl is east of the Turks and headed to the northwest. By Thursday night it will be bearing down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with 90mph winds. From there, Earl will head for Long Island, Providence and Boston Friday through Saturday, lashing those areas with heavy rain and wind gusts of about 60 to 70 mph. 

High surf and beach erosion will be the biggest issue from the Outer Banks to the tip of Maine.

Some sector impacts:
Retail:  If the National Weather Service is fairly liberal about issuing hurricane watches and warnings, items such as plywood, duct tape, bottled water and water in 1 gallon jugs, gasoline, generators and batteries will fly off the shelf. Labor Day store sales of clothing could suffer.

Energy: Again, if the National Weather Service splashes hurricane watches and warning up the East Coast, gasoline will probably fall in short supply in some areas as some people gas up and head inland. This will be especially true should hurricane watches and warning be posted from New Jersey to Maine.

Agriculture: New England crops have been running ahead of schedule and perhaps early harvest will save any commodities grown within 25 miles of the coast. Those areas will be prone to heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches if Earl is close enough to shore.

Aviation: The greatest impact will be on overseas flights which may have some problems getting around Earl Friday and Saturday. Airports most likely affected will be Dulles, Baltimore, JFK and Boston. Reagan National, Newark and LaGuardia will have fewer issues because of the domestic nature of their operations. However, airlines who rely on government weather forecasts may have to delay or cancel flights depending on forecast conditions, while airlines with meteorologists on staff may keep flying.

Earl to Head Up The Coast

The weather pattern is getting busy as we wind up August and head into September. The jet stream is diving across the western U.S. bringing in much cooler air and helping to generate showers and thunderstorms. The jet will migrate to the east and head back into Canada for a brief time as the Labor Day weekend approaches.
Showers and thunderstorms will generate locally heavy rainfall along the Gulf coast from Houston to Mobile and Biloxi. Isolated rainfall reports of 1 to 3 inches will be likely.

Hurricane Earl is ENE of Puerto Rico this morning. The current forecast track takes it to near North Carolina Thursday, then to NYC, Boston and Providence on Saturday. Earl will impact the Outer Banks with high surf, high wind and a lot of beach erosion. As far as air travel goes, anyone with plans to fly in or out of Washington D.C., Baltimore, Newark, LaGuardia, JFK, Boston, Providence, Philadelphia or Portland ME ought to think of a different plan - especially Friday night and Saturday- as significant flight delays or cancellations are likely.

Much colder air will swirl into the backside of Earl across New England Sunday and Monday with highs only in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s - if not the upper 20s.

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Significant Weather Through September 12

The start of meteorological autumn is just a few days away and we're starting to see a greater temperature contrast with each advancing cold front.
Cooler than normal air will be over the Pacific Northwest through the end of August and then the temperature will bump up slightly.  It will be very wet along the north-central Gulf coast where up to 3" to 7" of rain will fall from Apalachicola FL to around New Orleans. The hardest hit areas will be around Mobile and Biloxi. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees above normal over a wide swath of the country - from Texas to New Jersey and Delaware. Temperatures will cool to near normal Friday, September 3.

Heavy rain will fall now through September 12 across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and the western Great Lakes. Heavier than normal rainfall is also expected over Colorado and small portions of adjoining states, mainly as scattered showers and thunderstorms. Local 2" to 4" amounts will be possible.

Temperatures will be in the 90s - 8 to 18 degrees above normal - September 5 through 7 across Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, northwest Iowa and northwest Kansas.

Utility Impacts: Air conditioners will continue to run across much of the southeast half of the country. There will be several nights requiring heating across the Pacific Northwest and also far northern New England.

Agriculture: Wet weather will provide more than enough moisture for the central and northern Great Plains. Fields across the north half of Wisconsin and most of Minnesota, northwest Iowa and eastern South Dakota will be too wet to work 8 out of the next 15 days.  Much of the Southeast (except Florida and coastal Gulf of Mexico) will be drier than normal with expanding drought.

Aviation: No significant impacts are expected through September 12.

Construction: Delays are likely for the Upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes (but not Chicago).  Showery weather across Florida may cause some delays there.

Business Weather

The weather for the next two weeks will be fairly typical for this time of year across the U.S.
Temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees above normal across North Dakota, South Dakota, western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming and most of Minnesota through August 30.

Temperatures will be near normal across most of the country August 31 to September 5. The warmest areas will be West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Indiana and eastern Kentucky - where temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees above normal.  A large swath of the country will have above normal temperatures - from the Mid-Atlantic states to the central Rockies - with temperatures averaging 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Demand for air-conditioning will remain high across south of a line from Denver to Des Moines, Chicago, Cleveland to Philadelphia.
Transportation
There shouldn't be a major impact on transportation through September 10. Hurricanes Danielle and soon-to-be Earl will be well out to sea and they'll be fairly easy to forecast, limiting impact on trans-Atlantic shipping. The biggest problem will be that the two storms will be close to each other, allowing only about a three day window of opportunity to cross their paths. The storms will impact Europe late next week with heavy rain and gusty wind.
Agriculture
Fields will be in good condition for harvest across most of the corn and soybean growing areas.  Heavier rains will return to Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska September 1 to 10 with up to 3 inches in some areas - especially across Minnesota. The rain will limit fieldwork to 4 of the 10 days.
Retail
The above normal temperatures will have a possible impact on fall clothing sales as high temperatures in the 80s and 90s play a psychological role in the desire to buy sweaters, coats and other heavier clothing. Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland will have 4 days out of the next 15 when morning lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and daytime highs will be in the 70s, possibly helping people to feel the need to buy fall items.

Construction
The heavier rain across the Upper Midwest will limit the number of working days for outdoor construction. No other impacts are expected.

Heat Returns and a Soon-to-be Hurricane

There are a couple of big weather makers this morning. Certainly Danielle and soon-to-be Earl are going to be big hurricanes, but they are out in the middle of the ocean and really will only affect Europe later next week. Also, the heat will be building across the U.S. this week. There will be heavy rain over N Florida today and tomorrow; over the NW Gulf Coast this weekend.

The End of Summer

The storm is very well defined and should be upgraded to a hurricane. The current track takes it toward Bermuda for the weekend. The central pressure will dive bomb and this will likely be the strongest storm in years. It will head for Greenland next week and could be a huge problem for Europe after that.

Otherwise... it is a typical August weather pattern with hot temperatures and very few severe thunderstorms.

Flooding Rains for Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois

It looks like a lot of rain this afternoon and tonight for northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. spotty 3 to 7 inch amounts will be reported and flooding is likely. This will not only cause a problem for urban areas but also for farm field work.

We fine-tuned client forecasts.

Cooler North, Tropical System Along Gulf Coast

Headlines from New England to the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning are about the cooler temperatures. The Deep South is still hot and muggy - and will likely stay that way through Labor Day.

A low pressure center is located about 30 miles south of Panama City this morning. Winds associated with it are light but will gradually increase as the low moves to the west. New Orleans will see the storm tomorrow - with heavy rain, winds of 15 to 30 mph and a few gusts to 45 mph from the south as the storm passes by. Heavy rains of 6-8" will be likely along the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

New Mexico, west Texas, western Oklahoma and western Kansas and Colorado will get some heavy rain through tonight. Local amounts of 3" will be possible.

The cornbelt just can't seem to get out of the heavy rain this year. If it keeps up... corn prices may actually increase because it will be difficult to work the fields.

Tropical Storm Development is Likely

Thunderstorms will develop into a low pressure center near Apalachicola, Fla. today and rapidly strengthen Monday. The central pressure will reach 1006mb, capable of 40 mph wind, Monday evening. The low will then track westward, offshore, heading to the southeast Louisiana coast. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be 25 miles south of New Orleans with a central pressure of about 1002mb and wind gusts approaching 50 mph. The storm is expected to further strengthen to 998mb Wednesday as it reaches Beaumont, Tex. At that point it will be a strong tropical storm.

The most significant impacts will be on the northwest and west sides of the the storm, after the low pressure center passes. Those areas will contain the strongest wind, and the southerly flow will enhance tide and wave action. Seas offshore Alabama and Louisiana will likely peak at 10 to 15 feet with isolated 20 foot waves.

This will be a very compact storm, so any damage will be limited to about a 25 mile radius of the center. Forecasting its path will be critical to forecasting areas exposed to potential damage. Businesses relying on National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts will likely be caught off guard by this storm - the NHC pegged the probability of development at 20% as of Sunday morning, when the actual likelihood for development is closer to 80% or 90%.

Thunder and Heat

Is the issue of the day (A) thunderstorms, (B) heat or (C) a potential tropical storm?  Oh, wait; it's August 2010 - so it must be all three. Again.

The jet stream arcs from southern California across Wyoming to Lake Winnipeg this morning. Once again, a large cluster of thunderstorms is rolling across the north-central part of the country, leaving 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska overnight. Scattered flood advisories are in effect. The thunderstorms will be a severe weather and flood threat today and tonight to Minnesota and Iowa. Tomorrow they will be a problem for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

It's hot over the middle of the country once again and the lack of airflow, typical for August, is becoming a larger and larger issue, especially for urban settings. The good news is that a cool front will mix the air on Saturday and even though there won't be a dramatic drop in temperature, at least the air will be moving. That will be the message of hope for the day.

There are two tropical systems this morning. One is just southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The other is 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

The one over the Gulf of Mexico doesn't have a lot of upper air support, so it looks like it will meander to the north-northwest as a weak low. It will either track to the Mississippi delta or head inland across the Florida panhandle at the the end of the week. Meanwhile, the one over the Atlantic will likely spin up in speed. It is questionable whether it will become TS Danielle. It will likely depend on how badly the National Hurricane Center needs another named storm.

A significant change in the weather is coming up for the northern tier of states this weekend as another push of cool air comes down out of Canada, this one farther west than the previous two (which primarily affected New England and the eastern Great Lakes).

Thunderstorms and Heat

This morning we're watching a couple of clusters of thunderstorms. The first one is rolling across the Midwest. It looks like Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio will take the brunt of the thunderstorms. An series of upper air disturbances will keep thunderstorms going across southern Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Illinois today. Local rainfall in all of these areas will total 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts.


The next are with severe thunderstorms today will be across Nebraska and northern Kansas. These thunderstorms will also affect Iowa and northern Missouri.

Heat is a problem across the central part of the country. There's plenty of sunshine... and plenty of humidity. There will be some break in the heat over the weekend.

There is a tropical low drifting westward across Florida (B) which will produce heavy rain in clusters of thunderstorms. The low will track toward Louisiana. There is a low pressure area out in the Atlantic (A) that could become TS Danielle on Wednesday.

The low / potential tropical storm is going to struggle against the fairly strong Bermuda high. Right now it doesn't look like it will be an issue for the U.S. to deal with.

A New Product Just For You

We are unleashing a new service today - your personal weather forecast. 

We'll send them to you either as a text message, via Facebook if you "like" us, by email or we can also send a DM to your Twitter. Twitter and text messages are, of course, limited by 140 characters.

Now, the forecasts aren't a rehash of National Weather Service forecasts or computer models. You'll get our our own forecasts for a 5 mile radius around your location. We've been forecasting for small areas like that for a couple of decades. But if you are traveling or have a special need you can always contact us.

There is a catch. The service isn't free. We're charging $9.95 a month if you choose to be billed monthly. Or, $49.95 for an annual subscription (which works out to a little more than $4.16 a month).

Here's how the Facebook forecast would look:
Showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon with the heat of the day. An upper air disturbance will strengthen the storms, so expect some to be severe with hail up to 2" in diameter and wind gusts up to 95mph. Today's high 89-94, wind will be S-SE 12-22mph.  The best chance for rain will be after 1pm with up to 0.50" by 6pm.

Showers and thunderstorms will wind down around 10pm although there will be a couple of isolated thunderstorms hanging on until daybreak. Low 62-66.  Rainfall 0.01"-0.15".

Saturday.. expect a few afternoon and evening t-storms, mainly between 2pm and 8pm. High 90-95, wind N to NE 8 to 16mph. Rainfall will be less than 0.10".
Sunday.... a better chance of afternoon t-storms. High 89-94, wind E 10-15mph.

So, as you can see the forecast has more detail than the typical forecast.

We'd love to have you on board. You can subscribe by mail, or you can use Google Checkout, or you can use PayPal. Just go here to sign up today!

Colin, Thunderstorms and the Monsoon

There are a number of forecast problems for today. Let's start with the continental U.S.

Thunderstorms over the Great Lakes - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan - have not been predicted very well by the computer models.  It looks like a potential for another 0.50" to 2.00" over the same area tonight through Wednesday. That will raise the issue of additional flooding.The monsoon is continuing over the West with a daily threat of flash flooding from the heavier thunderstorms. It appears the heaviest rain will fall on Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and eastern Utah through Thursday.

The next forecast issue is tropical storm Colin. Colin is moving and developing as anticipated (so far!).  It looks like it will track across the northeast side of the Bahamas, heading for Jacksonville Florida. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane of 70-80mph. It should curve sharply to the north and northeast as it approaches Florida and Georgia to follow the Gulf Stream. But - if Colin is compact enough it might zip inland and die a quick death ala "Bonnie". We're closely following this situation and feel Wednesday will be decision day.

Which leads us to consider the next storm.
There are two significant tropical waves moving across Africa about 2 days apart. Either one could be the next storm - which would be "Danielle". Our feeling is that the next storm will go across the Caribbean Sea and then move across the Gulf of Mexico.

On the somewhat longer term, we're tackling the abrupt end to summer's heat that is coming up in just 2 weeks. The change will brighten heat-and-humidity weary areas of the country. Our newsletters are the source for that information right now.

A Weekend Hurricane and a Break in the Heat

There is a tropical depression about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde islands this morning at about 12N 41W. This depression will intensify into a tropical storm and then a minimal hurricane this week. It looks like it will reach the Bahamas Saturday and the north coast of Florida on Monday. Right now we are predicting winds of 90 mph over the Bahamas and 75-80 mph at U.S. landfall (assuming it misses Puerto Rico, which is not yet a given).

The low that may become "Danielle" will be quick on the heels of Colin, only a couple of days apart.

The monsoon continues over the West with pockets of very heavy rain across Arizona, New Mexico, the southeast half of Utah and Colorado. A threat for flash floods continues across the region.

It looks like the big heat that has been gripping the South and East will break around August 15th with a noticeable drop in temperatures.