Moving Beyond Nicole

TD17, which will soon be tropical storm Nicole, will pass just to the west of Miami this evening. Heavy rains will fall north of this system over eastern and central Florida. Once Nicole merges with a low south of South Carolina later tomorrow, heavy rain will spread up the coast from South Carolina north to NYC and Rhode Island.  Everything has been playing out just about the way it looked when this storm first appeared on the horizon a week ago.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the north half of Michigan. Snow showers are likely over Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Snow will develop over Washington on Monday above 7000 feet.

Tropical Storm and Floods

Here we go with TS Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. At least it should be Nicole, but it will be mixed with some remains of Matthew and largely made up of that gyre we've been talking about for the past few days. The storm should deepen to 990mb before it hits Miami tomorrow and then to about 986mb as it steams toward Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a Wednesday night or Thursday morning landfall there. The strongest wind will be north of the low and that's also where the bulk of the rain will be.


There will be a few large hail and damaging wind reports today from coastal North Carolina to the NYC area and over to Rhode Island. It will be quiet over the rest of the country. They will be dealing with rising flood waters in the Twin Cities area as the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers continue to swell following last week's rains. The water will eventually affect farmland along the Mississippi along the banks of Iowa and Illinois.

Florida Tropical Storms

It looks like the Caribbean Sea is going to active through October and this week's risk of a tropical storm hitting Florida is one a several. This morning's satellite image shows the thunderstorm cluster over the western Caribbean. The cluster is expected to move to the north, reaching Florida Thursday with 3 to 6 inches of rain and gusty east winds to 45 mph.

It appears that another low pressure center will be spun up every couple of days creating a minor problem for forecasters: You don't want to make people apathetic towards tropical storms by naming too many of them and then they turn out to be rather benign.  Floridians will have to get use to a lot of water and areas of flooding.

Rain will be the rule for the East Coast and there will be a small threat of severe thunderstorms from Georgia and far northern Florida to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania today.

Much of the rest of the country is going to have dry weather this week. Just a couple of areas of rain showers will be over the West, with greater amounts over the northern Great Lakes. This dry weather pattern will continue through October 15th.

Flooded Fields and Tropical Storms

The weather event of the day will be the showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast where local 1-2" rainfall will be possible for Georgia, N Florida, Alabama and South Carolina.

The weather event of the week will be the gyre which will develop into a tropical depression near the Cayman Islands late Monday or Tuesday and then track across Florida Thursday. The circulation will be broad with 30 to 40 mph wind developing across Wednesday along with heavy rain. The central pressure will drop to 1000mb or so. It might become a marginal tropical storm. Don't forget - everyone wants a record number of tropical storms this year to re-enforce climate change issues.

The West will be dry and warm, increasing the threat of wildfire. The Upper Midwest will be drying out but many fields are flooded and harvest won't be taking place - at least anytime soon.

Hurricanes and Blue Skies

The weather over the Caribbean Sea is fairly stormy today. TS Matthew is over Central America and will be heading toward the Bay of Campeche.  We're also watching the gyre stretching from the Dominican Republic to at 12N as it moves west. The gyre could become a tropical storm over the western Caribbean Sea midweek. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will break out tonight across the Southeast U.S. and last into Monday. The rain (locally to 3") will bring some relief to the dryness experienced this September.
Where there are bright fall colors across the Northeast - the photo taking will be great. The image to the right from this morning shows mid-level water vapor. The brown indicates the least amount of moisture which translates into the deepest blue sky.

Flash Floods and Freezing Weather

We are watching a few things today.
One is the strong potential for flash flooding across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and much of Colorado Wednesday and Wednesday night. Local amounts to 3 inches will be likely in just a couple of hours and that's enough to cause flash flooding.
The storm system moves across the central U.S. Thursday with widespread rain from Kansas and Oklahoma northward. There will be a significant risk of severe thunderstorms across South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Cold air in Canada is becoming more widespread and getting ready to surge to the south.

Temperatures at 850mb are running -6C to -12C across northwest Canada and +3C over Alaska

These are the 850mb temperatures over northwest Canada and Alaska. They've dropped about 6C-9C just in the past two weeks. Some of that air will plummet southward across the eastern half of the U.S. in the next two weeks for the first widespread freeze over the area this fall. We've got the date pretty well nailed down for clients.

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The Tropical Cyclones and a Freeze

Ohio is under the gun today with a threat of large hail, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and tornadoes.

That's ahead of one cold front. Another cold front will sweeping out of Canada tomorrow bringing with it a hard freeze to northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota Friday night. Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will have a hard freeze Saturday night.
Tropical storm Karl will reach Tampico around midnight tonight. Hurricane Igor will reach Bermuda Monday and Julia will pick up a little speed as she continues to lag to the east of Igor.

Heavy Rain, Severe Storms and a Freeze

There's all sorts of weather coming up in the next couple of days. Igor is headed for Bermuda this weekend, a small tropical low will move west across the Yucatan Peninsula - and that's just for starters. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight from Oklahoma to southeast Montana. Large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two are the main threats. What may be unusual about this severe weather threat is that it will go well past sunset, which is unusual for this time of year.

There will be areas of heavy rain across the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas of Iowa and Missouri may get as much as 3 inches.

Cold air will be plunging out of Canada for the weekend. A hard freeze is likely across central Canada, eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

On Igor and Freezes

Igor is churning over the central Atlantic Ocean today at about 15 mph. The eye is clearly visible on this morning's satellite image - and as hurricane's go it is a large storm, requiring ships to give it a wide berth.

Right now it looks like Igor will make a turn to the northwest and head towards Bermuda arriving there Friday. It will then swing up towards Newfoundland for the weekend. The storm will miss the U.S. but it will affect fishing waters. Igor will then get caught up in the larger area of low pressure over northeast Canada, intensifying the flow of cool air around the backside of the low across western and Central Canada. The threat for freezing temperatures will increase across the northern U.S. through September 23rd, which isn't abnormal for this time of year but it is a call to action for farmers who might not want their cash crops to freeze in the field later this month.

In the longer term, tropical storm formation will continue to be a threat for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea through early October.  Also, a more significant blast of cold air will approach the U.S. during the second week of October, which may lead to some our first significant snowfalls of the season.

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Rain Over Texas, Cool Northwest

A quick-moving storm system will zip from the Great Lakes across New England this week bringing (behind hit) a quick punch of chilly air. Meanwhile, much of the Pacific Northwest will be cooler than normal with widely scattered rain showers. A few snow showers will be likely above 9000 feet. Let the snow season begin.

Hermine is going to spread large quantities of rain across the eastern 2/3rds of Texas today. Some areas will see at least 4" of rain in addition to what has already fallen.

The low pressure center itself will track to the north passing just west of Dallas, then loop up across Oklahoma and wind up over Illinois later Thursday and Friday. Moderate rains of 2-4" will fall all along the path.

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Earl Will Leave Scars Along the East Coast

Hurricane Earl's eye filled in a little overnight but it is still steaming along at about 30N 75W with winds of 145 mph. Earl will start affecting the Outer Banks around noon EDT, wind gusts will increase to 90 mph on the islands, and rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches. The storm will be over for North Carolia around 6am Friday. The impact farther west will be not be great. Offshore, the storm has been around enough that swells are easily 60 feet.

Earl continues north tomorrow impacting the Delmarva peninsula until 6pm. Winds will be gusting to 80 mph and rainfall may reach 12 inches in as many hours. Long Island will feel the impact by 2pm Friday and then it will hit CT, MA and RI shortly thereafter. 10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 65 mph will be likely, except higher wind gusts will be felt on the east end of Long Island and Cape Cod. The rain spreads across New Hampshire and Maine Friday night with the highest winds along the coast of Maine.Beach erosion will likely be a huge problem with Earl. The wave action is going to be tremendous.
More on the rest of the U.S. later.

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