Your Flight is Canceled!

As I saw people waiting impatiently or sleeping at airports around the country early this week, following the Northeast's blizzard, I wondered why anyone would have thought they had the slghtest chance to fly. It was then that I realized that for the average person there really is no way to know if your flight is going to be delayed or canceled.

If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.

I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!

After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.

We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.

We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.

Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.

For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.

Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.

At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.

Snow, Rain and Freezes

The Northeast is digging out and another very large storm system is moving into the West. Hard freezes will be felt in L.A. and San Diego, floods and high wind across northern California, Nevada and Arizona, and a Midwest snow storm.

The Next Storm for the West

Even as the Northeast digs out of the post-Christmas blizzard, stormy weather is headed for the West again.
Heavy rain will move into California tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. The San Francisco area will pick up 5 inches of rain. Heavy snow will fall above 5000 feet. The heavy snow will spread across the inter-mountain region on Wednesday while heavier rain moves into Arizona and southern Nevada. Along with all of the moisture the wind will howl.
The storm will move into the Great Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with heavy snow over the central Rockies and Northern Plains. There will also be a lot of wind and blizzard - or near blizzard conditions. Thursday's temperatures will be sharply colder across the Rockies and Northern Plains, too.
And then Minnesota gets whacked (again) on Friday.

The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.

Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.

The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.

So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.

A Wintry Mix

You're Headed Where?

It may be an extra-long holiday for parts of the Northeast where a Nor'easter will blow through Sunday and Monday.

The storm will develop Christmas Day off the coast of Georgia, spreading snow along the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Sunday. The storm will barrel toward Boston Sunday night (the image at right is the computer model depiction for 10pm EST Sunday).

New York City, Boston and Providence could get hammered by 15" or more of snow and 50mph wind. There will be a very sharp west edge to the snow, but it does look like most of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine will bear the brunt of the storm.

If the storm wallops New York City and Newark NJ, the impact on the rest of the country's air travelers will be tremendous on Monday. Flights will be delayed and canceled nationwide. If NYC and Newark are spared there will still be delays and cancellations because Boston will be hit hard, but it won't be as bad as having all three out of service.

Holiday Weekend Weather

Do you have travel plans?

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Chris Orr's Weather Video Blog 21 Dec 2010

Here's some of what we're watching today..

Strong Winds

Moisture continues to blow in across California from the Pacific Ocean, dumping about 12 feet of snow at Mammoth Lakes, 12 or more inches of rain at lower elevations state wide, and areas of flooding northward across Washington and Oregon.
More rain and snow will fall today.

The jet stream is cranking along at peak velocities of 150-170mph today. The highest winds will drift eastward as the jet weakens over the western U.S. 

Its going to be a rough ride for airline passengers as the extreme winds migrate to the east. Light to moderate turbulence will be likely over much of the West, Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley through tonight.

New England is under the influence of a low pressure center that's 1000-plus miles out to sea. The low is so broad and so strong that much of New England will see wind gusts of 50 mph through Tuesday evening.

A Wet Week

It looks like only Delaware and New Jersey with have dry weather now through noon Wednesday. 

This is what the computer models are producing for total precipitation through midday Wednesday. Almost every state will get some moisture. California will have the greatest amount with the windward slopes picking up 6 to 8 inches of liquid (or melted snow). Some mountains will see more than 60 inches of snow.

The weather pattern will tame down a little Thursday through Saturday then pick up momentum again next week as a 150 to 200mph jet stream crosses the North Pacific.

Chris Orr's Weather Update

Here's the vlog

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Cold and Snow

I was on Twitter this morning (@Orr_Weather) and saw a post that schools and some public facilities in Glasgow were closing early today because of the cold. I checked it out - oh -  Glasgow, Scotland - not Montana! Schools, libraries, government offices and recreational facilities are closing early today and tomorrow because of the extreme cold. How cold is cold in Scotland? The 3pm (local time) temperature was 17F and the forecast low for tonight is +8, colder away from the city.

The Southeast is going to see a deep freeze Saturday through Tuesday. Florida will have a hard freeze (teens north, 20s south) Sunday night and Monday night.

The weather Sunday and Monday also looks very nasty for New York, New Hampshire and Vermont as a 970mb (28.64") low moves across eastern New England. My best estimate at this early date is for 12-24" of snow (locally 36") and 60mph winds.

Deep Freeze for the Eastern U.S.

The latest computer models show a powerful surge of cold air pouring across the eastern U.S. during the weekend. The weather from Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to Maine will be nasty with severe weather followed by a deep freeze to the south while heavy snow, sleet and rain pummels the north.

Florida's citrus growing regions will be hit by a hard freeze Sunday night into Tuesday as temperatures tumble into the teens across north Florida, 10s and 20s across the central sections, and into the low 30s as far south as Miami.

Monday's highs might barely make it to 32 at Tallahassee and Jacksonville, 50 at Miami.  On Tuesday, Washington DC and Baltimore might see highs of about 17.

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