Cooler North, Tropical System Along Gulf Coast

Headlines from New England to the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning are about the cooler temperatures. The Deep South is still hot and muggy - and will likely stay that way through Labor Day.

A low pressure center is located about 30 miles south of Panama City this morning. Winds associated with it are light but will gradually increase as the low moves to the west. New Orleans will see the storm tomorrow - with heavy rain, winds of 15 to 30 mph and a few gusts to 45 mph from the south as the storm passes by. Heavy rains of 6-8" will be likely along the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

New Mexico, west Texas, western Oklahoma and western Kansas and Colorado will get some heavy rain through tonight. Local amounts of 3" will be possible.

The cornbelt just can't seem to get out of the heavy rain this year. If it keeps up... corn prices may actually increase because it will be difficult to work the fields.

Tropical Storm Development is Likely

Thunderstorms will develop into a low pressure center near Apalachicola, Fla. today and rapidly strengthen Monday. The central pressure will reach 1006mb, capable of 40 mph wind, Monday evening. The low will then track westward, offshore, heading to the southeast Louisiana coast. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be 25 miles south of New Orleans with a central pressure of about 1002mb and wind gusts approaching 50 mph. The storm is expected to further strengthen to 998mb Wednesday as it reaches Beaumont, Tex. At that point it will be a strong tropical storm.

The most significant impacts will be on the northwest and west sides of the the storm, after the low pressure center passes. Those areas will contain the strongest wind, and the southerly flow will enhance tide and wave action. Seas offshore Alabama and Louisiana will likely peak at 10 to 15 feet with isolated 20 foot waves.

This will be a very compact storm, so any damage will be limited to about a 25 mile radius of the center. Forecasting its path will be critical to forecasting areas exposed to potential damage. Businesses relying on National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts will likely be caught off guard by this storm - the NHC pegged the probability of development at 20% as of Sunday morning, when the actual likelihood for development is closer to 80% or 90%.

Thunder and Heat

Is the issue of the day (A) thunderstorms, (B) heat or (C) a potential tropical storm?  Oh, wait; it's August 2010 - so it must be all three. Again.

The jet stream arcs from southern California across Wyoming to Lake Winnipeg this morning. Once again, a large cluster of thunderstorms is rolling across the north-central part of the country, leaving 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska overnight. Scattered flood advisories are in effect. The thunderstorms will be a severe weather and flood threat today and tonight to Minnesota and Iowa. Tomorrow they will be a problem for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

It's hot over the middle of the country once again and the lack of airflow, typical for August, is becoming a larger and larger issue, especially for urban settings. The good news is that a cool front will mix the air on Saturday and even though there won't be a dramatic drop in temperature, at least the air will be moving. That will be the message of hope for the day.

There are two tropical systems this morning. One is just southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The other is 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

The one over the Gulf of Mexico doesn't have a lot of upper air support, so it looks like it will meander to the north-northwest as a weak low. It will either track to the Mississippi delta or head inland across the Florida panhandle at the the end of the week. Meanwhile, the one over the Atlantic will likely spin up in speed. It is questionable whether it will become TS Danielle. It will likely depend on how badly the National Hurricane Center needs another named storm.

A significant change in the weather is coming up for the northern tier of states this weekend as another push of cool air comes down out of Canada, this one farther west than the previous two (which primarily affected New England and the eastern Great Lakes).

Thunderstorms and Heat

This morning we're watching a couple of clusters of thunderstorms. The first one is rolling across the Midwest. It looks like Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio will take the brunt of the thunderstorms. An series of upper air disturbances will keep thunderstorms going across southern Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Illinois today. Local rainfall in all of these areas will total 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts.


The next are with severe thunderstorms today will be across Nebraska and northern Kansas. These thunderstorms will also affect Iowa and northern Missouri.

Heat is a problem across the central part of the country. There's plenty of sunshine... and plenty of humidity. There will be some break in the heat over the weekend.

There is a tropical low drifting westward across Florida (B) which will produce heavy rain in clusters of thunderstorms. The low will track toward Louisiana. There is a low pressure area out in the Atlantic (A) that could become TS Danielle on Wednesday.

The low / potential tropical storm is going to struggle against the fairly strong Bermuda high. Right now it doesn't look like it will be an issue for the U.S. to deal with.

A New Product Just For You

We are unleashing a new service today - your personal weather forecast. 

We'll send them to you either as a text message, via Facebook if you "like" us, by email or we can also send a DM to your Twitter. Twitter and text messages are, of course, limited by 140 characters.

Now, the forecasts aren't a rehash of National Weather Service forecasts or computer models. You'll get our our own forecasts for a 5 mile radius around your location. We've been forecasting for small areas like that for a couple of decades. But if you are traveling or have a special need you can always contact us.

There is a catch. The service isn't free. We're charging $9.95 a month if you choose to be billed monthly. Or, $49.95 for an annual subscription (which works out to a little more than $4.16 a month).

Here's how the Facebook forecast would look:
Showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon with the heat of the day. An upper air disturbance will strengthen the storms, so expect some to be severe with hail up to 2" in diameter and wind gusts up to 95mph. Today's high 89-94, wind will be S-SE 12-22mph.  The best chance for rain will be after 1pm with up to 0.50" by 6pm.

Showers and thunderstorms will wind down around 10pm although there will be a couple of isolated thunderstorms hanging on until daybreak. Low 62-66.  Rainfall 0.01"-0.15".

Saturday.. expect a few afternoon and evening t-storms, mainly between 2pm and 8pm. High 90-95, wind N to NE 8 to 16mph. Rainfall will be less than 0.10".
Sunday.... a better chance of afternoon t-storms. High 89-94, wind E 10-15mph.

So, as you can see the forecast has more detail than the typical forecast.

We'd love to have you on board. You can subscribe by mail, or you can use Google Checkout, or you can use PayPal. Just go here to sign up today!

Colin, Thunderstorms and the Monsoon

There are a number of forecast problems for today. Let's start with the continental U.S.

Thunderstorms over the Great Lakes - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan - have not been predicted very well by the computer models.  It looks like a potential for another 0.50" to 2.00" over the same area tonight through Wednesday. That will raise the issue of additional flooding.The monsoon is continuing over the West with a daily threat of flash flooding from the heavier thunderstorms. It appears the heaviest rain will fall on Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and eastern Utah through Thursday.

The next forecast issue is tropical storm Colin. Colin is moving and developing as anticipated (so far!).  It looks like it will track across the northeast side of the Bahamas, heading for Jacksonville Florida. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane of 70-80mph. It should curve sharply to the north and northeast as it approaches Florida and Georgia to follow the Gulf Stream. But - if Colin is compact enough it might zip inland and die a quick death ala "Bonnie". We're closely following this situation and feel Wednesday will be decision day.

Which leads us to consider the next storm.
There are two significant tropical waves moving across Africa about 2 days apart. Either one could be the next storm - which would be "Danielle". Our feeling is that the next storm will go across the Caribbean Sea and then move across the Gulf of Mexico.

On the somewhat longer term, we're tackling the abrupt end to summer's heat that is coming up in just 2 weeks. The change will brighten heat-and-humidity weary areas of the country. Our newsletters are the source for that information right now.

A Weekend Hurricane and a Break in the Heat

There is a tropical depression about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde islands this morning at about 12N 41W. This depression will intensify into a tropical storm and then a minimal hurricane this week. It looks like it will reach the Bahamas Saturday and the north coast of Florida on Monday. Right now we are predicting winds of 90 mph over the Bahamas and 75-80 mph at U.S. landfall (assuming it misses Puerto Rico, which is not yet a given).

The low that may become "Danielle" will be quick on the heels of Colin, only a couple of days apart.

The monsoon continues over the West with pockets of very heavy rain across Arizona, New Mexico, the southeast half of Utah and Colorado. A threat for flash floods continues across the region.

It looks like the big heat that has been gripping the South and East will break around August 15th with a noticeable drop in temperatures.