A Tropical Storm or No?

The tropical disturbance has rolled off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. There's quite a lot of thunderstorm activity clustered around it and shearing off to the north toward Houston, Texas.

The question is: What will it do now? It looks like it will strengthen a little overnight but probably not beyond tropical depression status. Winds will be strongest on the east side of the system (south-southeast at 15 to 30 knots with gusts to 45 knots). The center will form off the coast of Corpus Christi overnight and then move to the north-northwest before crossing the coast Thursday morning.


The big impact is going to be rain. 4 to 8 inches of rain will be likely in the Houston area, northward to near Dallas-Ft. Worth and southwest to near College Station and Corpus Christi.

This is one computer model's prediction for just after sunrise Thursday. Expect a lot of flooding. The heaviest concentration of rain will eventually press northeastward across Arkansas Friday and Saturday and will likely cause flooding there.

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