Bonnie is acting like a small cluster of thunderstorms, not a tropical storm and speculation as to why it is a tropical storm is that (A) we're short on hurricanes this year or (B) the NHC is under pressure to forecast for the Gulf oil clean up. Either way it looks like bad science.
Hurricane Hunter aircraft report a 2 knot drop in flight level winds, down to 41 kts. The central pressure has risen to 1009mb. As it passed over Nassau the wind gusted to about 20 kts. A few buoys continue to show gusts of 23 to 26 kts, only about 3 to 5 kts higher than the diurnal swing noted Thursday. Doppler velocities are around 45 kts at 5000 to 7000ft above mean sea level.
Bonnie is tracking along the plume of mid-level moisture which is not normal for a tropical system. Tropical storms tend to track toward mid-level dry areas.
This system will lash south Florida today as a cluster of thunderstorms, probably producing a few tornadoes.
After that, Bonnie should fizzle southwest of Fort Myers and the thunderstorms will track into the Florida Panhandle, south Alabama and south Mississippi Saturday and Sunday.
You can get the latest on the 5-day forecast when you get our daily briefing.
The bottom line is that TS Bonnie does not look like a tropical storm.
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