Monday, July 19, 2010

The Summer Monsoon

The summer monsoon season is here with scattered showers and thunderstorms across eastern Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and parts of Utah. The moisture is a great thing, but it also increases the threat of wildfires. 

Lightning caused wildfires are natural and necessary. As a weather forecaster, however, it plays havoc with predicting afternoon high temperatures. The smoke blots out the sun (or at least dims the sun) and can lop a solid 5 degrees off of what the temperature could reach under clear to partly cloudy skies.

There's a semi-interesting looking tropical wave along 68W between 20-25N this morning but it is very disorganized. The next interesting one is along 30W between 15-30N.  The computer models don't even hint at a low pressure center in the central Atlantic until the first week of August.  It the central Atlantic doesn't get active in August, this could be a hug bust of a hurricane season.

The Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley, which has been pounded by severe weather this summer, will start to get a break from at least the big severe thunderstorms - although rainy weather will likely continue - as the jet stream weakens a lot in the next few days.

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