A Cool, Damp Autumn

A ribbon of warmer than normal water across the North Pacific may be setting the stage for a wetter than normal and cooler than normal fall for Canada and much of the northern U.S. The warmer than normal water

stretches from Japan to 50N 140W. Temperatures within the band are 2C to 4C above normal. To the north is a narrow band of cooler than normal temperatures. There are two potential implications for this pattern. The first is to allow the jetstream to dive south across North America, dragging cooler than normal air south from the Arctic. The second is a path for the remnants of typhoons which will migrate along or just south of the jet stream while continuing to feed off of the above normal sea surface temperatures.  It looks like it will be an interesting late summer and fall.

Severe Weather Outbreak
Central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan are under the gun today and tonight for tornadoes, torrential flooding rain, large hail and damaging wind. Some of the tornadoes may be large and a few areas will get more than 2 inches of rain (up to 5 inches).

Heavy rain will continue through Wednesday across east and central Texas. Flooding will continue to be a problem as another 2 to 5 inches of rain comes down in some areas.

The monsoon is well underway with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across a large portion of the West. Days start out sunny, then thunderstorms flair up between noon and 2pm, dying out between midnight and 3am. The cycle will continue for a while.