Texas is going to get a deluge of rain through Wednesday. A tropical flow off the Gulf of Mexico will force moisture well inland. 3 to 8 inches of rain will be likely from Brownsville to Lake Charles, Louisiana and inland to Dallas, Laredo and the Big Bend area. Expect a lot of runoff and flooding in the Houston, Galveston, College Station, Brownsville, Laredo -- and many other areas.
Oklahoma and Kansas will be drying out over the next 2 weeks as temperatures continue in the 90s to near 100. The lack of rainfall and the persistent heat will stress crops.
The Midwest will also be a little drier but since moisture is at least adequate right now, there shouldn't be an immediate stress on crops despite high temperatures in the 90s. A bigger concern is the risk of an early frost / freeze from Pennsylvania and New York to Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Wisconsin. That discussion is being handled right now in our 30 day outlook, here.
A tropical low will likely form southeast of South Carolina / east of Georgia August 7 to 10. The Gulf of Mexico will have quite a bit of thunderstorm activity through August 10, but there's no hint of tropical storm formation at this point. We're discussing the longer term tropics here.
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