Your Flight is Canceled!

As I saw people waiting impatiently or sleeping at airports around the country early this week, following the Northeast's blizzard, I wondered why anyone would have thought they had the slghtest chance to fly. It was then that I realized that for the average person there really is no way to know if your flight is going to be delayed or canceled.

If you go to the Federal Aviation Administration's airport status site at fly.faa.gov, you'll see flight delays in real-time but you won't necessarily see flight cancellations. Oftentimes the flight delays may be small, but if flights are being canceled there will be fewer delays.

I've seen airports closed down because of weather - all flights canceled - and, officially, the airport reporting there were no delays. Sure. There weren't any flights to delay!

After spending several years working with airlines, helping them manage their fleets with weather forecasts, I know it is fairly easy to predict when flights will be delayed. And when the probability of delays goes up, the probability of cancellations increases.

We rank the probability of flight delays for the next 4 days at 50 airports around the country (and if you are an annual subscriber to the service you can request that we add one or two more). We look at snow, fog, freezing rain, high wind, thunderstorms and other factors, then assign a probability for delays.

We want it to be simple to use so our range is from 0=no weather-related delays to 10=100% chance of delays. A rank of 1-4 usually means you'll run into minor delays of up to an hour. At 5-7 you may have delays of more than an hour and run the risk of a couple of canceled flights. At 8-9 you can expect delays of at least 3 hours and there will undoubtedly be cancellations. And a 10 means we expect widespread cancellations.

Each day is broken down into the AM (5am to 9am) and PM (3pm to 7pm) hub times. We cannot guarantee your particular flight will be delayed or canceled, but we lay out the odds. For example, I'd bring some extra reading material when an airport is ranked at a 4. Bring extra reading material and extra cash for food when an airport is ranked at a 7.

For an 8 or 9 you might want to bring a pillow, consider rearranging our itinerary or do yoga so you don't get angry at the fine folks at the ticket counter for something out of their control.

Finally, there's the 10 - the magic number assigned to BOS, LGA, EWR and JFK this past weekend. At a 10 you might want to book a room for an extra night. Those 10s are rare, but if you know two, three or four days ahead, you can explore your options before spending a day or two in the Green Concourse all smelly, exhausted and grumpy.

At least we do offer a tool so you can better play the odds and be more understanding when you call the customer service agent to confirm your flight status. Check it out at OrrWeather.com or click here.

Snow, Rain and Freezes

The Northeast is digging out and another very large storm system is moving into the West. Hard freezes will be felt in L.A. and San Diego, floods and high wind across northern California, Nevada and Arizona, and a Midwest snow storm.

The Next Storm for the West

Even as the Northeast digs out of the post-Christmas blizzard, stormy weather is headed for the West again.
Heavy rain will move into California tomorrow and continue into Wednesday. The San Francisco area will pick up 5 inches of rain. Heavy snow will fall above 5000 feet. The heavy snow will spread across the inter-mountain region on Wednesday while heavier rain moves into Arizona and southern Nevada. Along with all of the moisture the wind will howl.
The storm will move into the Great Plains Wednesday night and Thursday with heavy snow over the central Rockies and Northern Plains. There will also be a lot of wind and blizzard - or near blizzard conditions. Thursday's temperatures will be sharply colder across the Rockies and Northern Plains, too.
And then Minnesota gets whacked (again) on Friday.

The Northeast snow storm is well underway and for me - us - it is time to sit back. OrrWeather.com warnings went out Wednesday and Thursday, updated Friday and Saturday: If you're traveling in and out of the Northeast, you're not.

Some stories I am reading tonight make it sound like it's a surprise that it is snowing so much, that the wind is blowing so strong, that the air pressure is falling so fast.

The odd thing about blizzards and hurricanes (or typhoons) is that, as a forecaster, you can see them coming days ahead of time so the adrenalin rush hits 2 or 4 or 6 days before the "day of". Contrast that to the adrenalin rush for severe thunderstorms, tornadoes and flash floods which occurs as the storms happen.

So now it is a matter of waiting for the snowfall tallies to come in and waiting for the signs of the next one. Oh... I already see hints of the 2011 blizzard in the 60 day outlook.

A Wintry Mix

You're Headed Where?

It may be an extra-long holiday for parts of the Northeast where a Nor'easter will blow through Sunday and Monday.

The storm will develop Christmas Day off the coast of Georgia, spreading snow along the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia Sunday. The storm will barrel toward Boston Sunday night (the image at right is the computer model depiction for 10pm EST Sunday).

New York City, Boston and Providence could get hammered by 15" or more of snow and 50mph wind. There will be a very sharp west edge to the snow, but it does look like most of Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine will bear the brunt of the storm.

If the storm wallops New York City and Newark NJ, the impact on the rest of the country's air travelers will be tremendous on Monday. Flights will be delayed and canceled nationwide. If NYC and Newark are spared there will still be delays and cancellations because Boston will be hit hard, but it won't be as bad as having all three out of service.

Holiday Weekend Weather

Do you have travel plans?

Click To Play

Chris Orr's Weather Video Blog 21 Dec 2010

Here's some of what we're watching today..

Strong Winds

Moisture continues to blow in across California from the Pacific Ocean, dumping about 12 feet of snow at Mammoth Lakes, 12 or more inches of rain at lower elevations state wide, and areas of flooding northward across Washington and Oregon.
More rain and snow will fall today.

The jet stream is cranking along at peak velocities of 150-170mph today. The highest winds will drift eastward as the jet weakens over the western U.S. 

Its going to be a rough ride for airline passengers as the extreme winds migrate to the east. Light to moderate turbulence will be likely over much of the West, Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley through tonight.

New England is under the influence of a low pressure center that's 1000-plus miles out to sea. The low is so broad and so strong that much of New England will see wind gusts of 50 mph through Tuesday evening.

A Wet Week

It looks like only Delaware and New Jersey with have dry weather now through noon Wednesday. 

This is what the computer models are producing for total precipitation through midday Wednesday. Almost every state will get some moisture. California will have the greatest amount with the windward slopes picking up 6 to 8 inches of liquid (or melted snow). Some mountains will see more than 60 inches of snow.

The weather pattern will tame down a little Thursday through Saturday then pick up momentum again next week as a 150 to 200mph jet stream crosses the North Pacific.

Chris Orr's Weather Update

Here's the vlog

Click To Play

Cold and Snow

I was on Twitter this morning (@Orr_Weather) and saw a post that schools and some public facilities in Glasgow were closing early today because of the cold. I checked it out - oh -  Glasgow, Scotland - not Montana! Schools, libraries, government offices and recreational facilities are closing early today and tomorrow because of the extreme cold. How cold is cold in Scotland? The 3pm (local time) temperature was 17F and the forecast low for tonight is +8, colder away from the city.

The Southeast is going to see a deep freeze Saturday through Tuesday. Florida will have a hard freeze (teens north, 20s south) Sunday night and Monday night.

The weather Sunday and Monday also looks very nasty for New York, New Hampshire and Vermont as a 970mb (28.64") low moves across eastern New England. My best estimate at this early date is for 12-24" of snow (locally 36") and 60mph winds.

Deep Freeze for the Eastern U.S.

The latest computer models show a powerful surge of cold air pouring across the eastern U.S. during the weekend. The weather from Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to Maine will be nasty with severe weather followed by a deep freeze to the south while heavy snow, sleet and rain pummels the north.

Florida's citrus growing regions will be hit by a hard freeze Sunday night into Tuesday as temperatures tumble into the teens across north Florida, 10s and 20s across the central sections, and into the low 30s as far south as Miami.

Monday's highs might barely make it to 32 at Tallahassee and Jacksonville, 50 at Miami.  On Tuesday, Washington DC and Baltimore might see highs of about 17.

Click To Play

A Stormy Start for the Week

Monday and Tuesday will be busy weather days even though this depiction of the surface weather (the Sunday afternoon GFS) doesn't look impressive with a low near Omaha at noon Monday.

But there will be an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across Louisiana, Mississippi and southern Alabama Monday afternoon and night with large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. It looks like there will be short lines of severe thunderstorms. Heavy rain (2-3") will fall over eastern Arkansas, Mississippi and western Tennessee. The rain will be enough to cause flooding. The heavy rain will be over eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky, Alabama and northwest Georgia on Tuesday -- and there will be a lot of flooding there.

Meanwhile the Northern Plains will get some heavy snow Monday and the Upper Mississippi Valley will get blasted on Tuesday. Many areas will have 3-6" of snow and 35 mph wind. Western Minnesota and eastern South Dakota may pick up 10" of snow with the same for the Black Hills of South Dakota.

Washington State gets whacked Monday night and Tuesday with 2 to 4 inches of rain below 4500 feet and 2 to 3 feet of snow above 5000 feet.

Monday: Come Chat With Me!

Next week I will make video chat available at select times during the day. It will be open to everyone on a trial basis at first but what I would like to see is enough subscribers to eliminate the gaps.

Go to www.TheOrrStore.com and "Talk to a Forecaster" to see the details.

Give it a test drive next week at here.

I will chat to you then!

Freeze for the Southwest

The wild weather this weekend will be over the West where heavy snow is likely the next 2 days across northern California, most of Oregon and parts of Idaho above 4500 ft. Snowfall will be on the order of 1 to 2 feet. At the lowest elevations rainfall will be 0.50 to 1.50 inch.

Both Saturday and Sunday night temperatures across California's Central Valley, Las Vegas and Phoenix will drop into the 20s for a hard freeze lasting 6 to 8 hours.

As the weather system moves into the Southern Plains severe thunderstorms will develop across Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, then Alabama, Georgia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and the western Carolinas Tuesday afternoon and night.
Flooding will be major problem.

Tornadoes, Floods and Freezes

Tornadoes will be possible this afternoon  across eastern Arkansas, western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. Flooding is likely through Friday morning for central Tennessee and Kentucky as up to 5" of rain falls.

It will be nastier early next week as flooding becomes national news Monday and Tuesday for Kentucky and Tennessee as another 5" of rain falls.

Tonight through Sunday night California's Central Valley will freeze. The cold temperatures and frosty conditions will even reach the outskirts of Los Angeles. A freeze is likely for Las Vegas and Phoenix the next four nights mornings. 

A Long Holiday Weekend

In the meantime, heavy rain and strong winds will press in across the Pacific Northwest into the weekend. Cold air will reach the Great Basin the weekend and some of it will spill into California's Central Valley where a hard freeze will be possible both Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Next Monday will be nasty over the Pacific Northwest where 15 to 25 inches of snow will fall. Severe thunderstorms will be possible from Louisiana to central Tennessee, and flooding will be likely across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee, southeast Kentucky and far western North Carolina  with 2 to 5 inches of rain (bringing the total for Thanksgiving and Monday to 10 inches in some areas!).

Thanksgiving Day will be very wet and stormy from east Texas to western Pennsylvania. Severe thunderstorms will be likely from the Gulf Coast to Tennessee, including northern Mississippi and northern Alabama. Flooding will be a huge problem from northern Mississippi and northern Alabama, much of Tennessee, Kentucky, and much of West Virgina.

The long holiday weekend will be more than eventful - as far as the weather goes. It all starts Wednesday with a mix of freezing rain and snow across Minnesota and eastern South Dakota, and blizzard conditions across much of North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, parts of South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming.
Shoot me any questions you might have about the weekend weather. You can also find me on Twitter.

Here Comes Winter!

Much colder air is coming down from the north. Here are some thoughts on West Coast and Northern Plains weather, and something interesting about east Arctic hunting.

Minnesota Snow

Snow in Minnesota? It snows there all the time, right? So what's the big deal?
This weekend's snow will be the first deep snowfall there in several months (there
was very little snow across much of Minnesota February through April).

But Minneapolis is also a hub for Delta/Northwest airlines so you can expect
major delays at airports Minneapolis feeds (Atlanta, Memphis, Los Angeles,
Denver, Chicago, Detroit, London and Amsterdam).

The Super-Long Range Forecast

Part of what we do is making extended weather outlooks. You know about the 7-day forecasts you see on the web and TV, but we do something a little different. Enhancing a technique we've used for more than 25 years, we make what we call The Hovmoller Outlook. The work that goes into them is much more than an analysis of Hovmoller diagrams, but in interviews the name stuck.

We make these outlooks for regions of the country and send them out on Tuesdays and Fridays. You can subscribe to The Hovmoller Outlook for less than $10 a month. Here's a sample:

Subscribe by going to OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart. We'll send you the next issue that covers your region.

Stormy Weather

A storm system over the Southwest will bring scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms to southern California, Arizona, southern Nevada and New Mexico through tomorrow. There will be pockets of flash flooding and a couple of severe thunderstorms.

The Pacific Northwest will be slammed by the first of a series of storms Saturday night through Monday with winds of 70mph, heavy rain -- and heavy snow above 7000 ft. Expect widespread damage.

There could be heavy snow over eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday - with local amounts to 6 inches. Winds of 40-60 mph will buffet the Northern Plains.

Our new extended outlook comes out Friday and will be on a regular Tuesday/Friday update cycle from then on. This outlook will be detailed through 45 days with a general outlook days 46-60.
See OrrWeather.com and click on the shopping cart for details on the subscription.

Heavy Snow for East New York & Vermont

3 to 6" snow will fall Friday afternoon through early Saturday across eastern New York and Vermont. Wind gusts to 45 mph are likely Friday night, so expect a lot of tree limb and power line damage.

Temperatures at 850mb (5500 ft) are expected to drop to -3C which should be good enough for precipitation to be all snow late Friday into Saturday morning. The local NWS office is talking about the winter storm watch being for elevations above 2000 feet, but it looks like snow levels will easily be lower than that.

Changes in Our Forecast Services

We upgraded some of forecast services this week because you are important to us and we believe it will make it easier for you.

Our personal weather service now automatically comes with a web page and unique URL. (This used to be an option.) The page will include your 5 day forecast and a link to the 30-day outlook, plus some other features. You can still have the forecast sent to your Facebook, Twitter or email.

All of our web, email, text forecasts are updated by 5am each morning. Now we are toying with making the call-in feature available earlier in the day. That decision may come next month.

Occasionally we have special climate and weather reports. Those will now be available to more of you, as will our newsletter. Special requests for climate data and requests for reconstructing weather events are assumed to be court related and are handled on a case-by-case basis.

Stay tuned for more upgrades as they happen!

Flight Delays

It is looking pretty ugly for E Pennsylvania, SE New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts & Connecticut for Thursday.  The area will get flooding rain Thursday afternoon and night with rainfall 4+",   locally higher amounts. There will be significant flight delays Thursday afternoon and evening for NYC and Philadelphia airports. I expect to see at least 3 hour delays, which will trickle over to Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, LA and Minneapolis. 

40 to 50mph gusts at NYC terminals will cause delays again Friday morning and afternoon.

The West and Great Plains ridge that has been protecting the U.S. from Pacific storms will break down the last week of October. It looks like Portland and Seattle will get hammered first - and one wonders for how long. It could be for a few weeks.

Heavy Rains and Frosty Temperatures

It is a busy Monday even though it is a holiday. First off, south Florida looks wet all week as the monsoonal low pokes across the western Caribbean Sea all week. The south tip and the Keys will get something more than 5 inches of rain this week.
The NYC, Philadelphia, Newark area could get hammered with rain Thursday and Thursday night with 3+". That's enough to cause urban flooding. The rain, low clouds and strong winds will cause significant flight delays (1 to 3 hours).

Frost and freezing temperatures will cover North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan Wednesday morning into Friday morning. Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia could see frost this coming weekend. Frost and freezing temperatures will be more extensive during the last week of October.

Colder Weather is Coming

A friend in Tucson says he turned off the air condition yesterday for the first time since April. The weather pattern  certainly changing with many locales seeing a significant season drop off in temperatures. The first of a couple of storm systems which will draw colder air down from the polar regions is over the Southwest today and will slowly pull into the central part of the country this weekend.

The next series of storm systems are coming across the Pacific Ocean, generally following the path of the colder sea surface temperatures. Each storm system will slap the average temperature across the U.S. down a little more. Snowflakes and ice pellets will fall across the northern Great Lakes next Wednesday and Thursday, while western Canada gets hit with several storms (and a rain/snow mix) over the next 10 days.

The biggest change yet is coming up the last week of the month.

Temps Return to Normal

It was a chilly morning from Missouri to the Great Lakes with areas of frost. The showers over Pennsylvania and New York will continue into Wednesday night with some areas picking up 1.5" or more of rain. Lighter showers will fall over eastern Ohio, West Virginia and Maryland, and across southwest New England.

Showers will also be the rule across the Great Basin, the central and northern Rockies through at least midweek.

The atmosphere is becoming much cooler as much of the U.S. will be seeing the last of the very warm weather this week and next. Temperatures will be settling to near normal or, in a few cases, below normal by the end of next week. Freezes will be commonplace across the Northern Plain, Great Lakes and the Northeast.

Moving Beyond Nicole

TD17, which will soon be tropical storm Nicole, will pass just to the west of Miami this evening. Heavy rains will fall north of this system over eastern and central Florida. Once Nicole merges with a low south of South Carolina later tomorrow, heavy rain will spread up the coast from South Carolina north to NYC and Rhode Island.  Everything has been playing out just about the way it looked when this storm first appeared on the horizon a week ago.

A hard freeze is likely Friday night across eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin and the north half of Michigan. Snow showers are likely over Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan.

Snow will develop over Washington on Monday above 7000 feet.

Tropical Storm and Floods

Here we go with TS Nicole forming near the Cayman Islands this morning. At least it should be Nicole, but it will be mixed with some remains of Matthew and largely made up of that gyre we've been talking about for the past few days. The storm should deepen to 990mb before it hits Miami tomorrow and then to about 986mb as it steams toward Myrtle Beach, South Carolina for a Wednesday night or Thursday morning landfall there. The strongest wind will be north of the low and that's also where the bulk of the rain will be.


There will be a few large hail and damaging wind reports today from coastal North Carolina to the NYC area and over to Rhode Island. It will be quiet over the rest of the country. They will be dealing with rising flood waters in the Twin Cities area as the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers continue to swell following last week's rains. The water will eventually affect farmland along the Mississippi along the banks of Iowa and Illinois.

Florida Tropical Storms

It looks like the Caribbean Sea is going to active through October and this week's risk of a tropical storm hitting Florida is one a several. This morning's satellite image shows the thunderstorm cluster over the western Caribbean. The cluster is expected to move to the north, reaching Florida Thursday with 3 to 6 inches of rain and gusty east winds to 45 mph.

It appears that another low pressure center will be spun up every couple of days creating a minor problem for forecasters: You don't want to make people apathetic towards tropical storms by naming too many of them and then they turn out to be rather benign.  Floridians will have to get use to a lot of water and areas of flooding.

Rain will be the rule for the East Coast and there will be a small threat of severe thunderstorms from Georgia and far northern Florida to New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania today.

Much of the rest of the country is going to have dry weather this week. Just a couple of areas of rain showers will be over the West, with greater amounts over the northern Great Lakes. This dry weather pattern will continue through October 15th.

Flooded Fields and Tropical Storms

The weather event of the day will be the showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast where local 1-2" rainfall will be possible for Georgia, N Florida, Alabama and South Carolina.

The weather event of the week will be the gyre which will develop into a tropical depression near the Cayman Islands late Monday or Tuesday and then track across Florida Thursday. The circulation will be broad with 30 to 40 mph wind developing across Wednesday along with heavy rain. The central pressure will drop to 1000mb or so. It might become a marginal tropical storm. Don't forget - everyone wants a record number of tropical storms this year to re-enforce climate change issues.

The West will be dry and warm, increasing the threat of wildfire. The Upper Midwest will be drying out but many fields are flooded and harvest won't be taking place - at least anytime soon.

Hurricanes and Blue Skies

The weather over the Caribbean Sea is fairly stormy today. TS Matthew is over Central America and will be heading toward the Bay of Campeche.  We're also watching the gyre stretching from the Dominican Republic to at 12N as it moves west. The gyre could become a tropical storm over the western Caribbean Sea midweek. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will break out tonight across the Southeast U.S. and last into Monday. The rain (locally to 3") will bring some relief to the dryness experienced this September.
Where there are bright fall colors across the Northeast - the photo taking will be great. The image to the right from this morning shows mid-level water vapor. The brown indicates the least amount of moisture which translates into the deepest blue sky.

Flash Floods and Freezing Weather

We are watching a few things today.
One is the strong potential for flash flooding across Arizona, New Mexico, Utah and much of Colorado Wednesday and Wednesday night. Local amounts to 3 inches will be likely in just a couple of hours and that's enough to cause flash flooding.
The storm system moves across the central U.S. Thursday with widespread rain from Kansas and Oklahoma northward. There will be a significant risk of severe thunderstorms across South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota.

Cold air in Canada is becoming more widespread and getting ready to surge to the south.

Temperatures at 850mb are running -6C to -12C across northwest Canada and +3C over Alaska

These are the 850mb temperatures over northwest Canada and Alaska. They've dropped about 6C-9C just in the past two weeks. Some of that air will plummet southward across the eastern half of the U.S. in the next two weeks for the first widespread freeze over the area this fall. We've got the date pretty well nailed down for clients.

A Forecast Revolution

I am taking weather forecasting to a new level - a personal level.

I have forecast weather for major motion pictures, television, radio, ski resorts, airlines, corporate jets and construction projects worldwide. Now I want to let you see what it is like to have your personal meteorologist.

Get my personal weather forecast by email, text message, Twitter direct message or on Facebook, plus I'll give you a phone number so you can call and ask questions. I'll tell you when it will start to rain, when it will stop, how much will fall, the temperature, cloud cover and more. You won't have to wonder if that forecast for a 20% chance of rain really means it will rain.

And if you are going on vacation, there's no location too remote. I have forecast for small countries in Africa and remote Pacific Islands, for suburbs of big cities and area as small as 1 square mile.

If you trade the futures markets, I can help you with 90- and 180-day forecasts. Many of my 30 years as a meteorologist have been spent forecasting for cash crops.

Instead of watching the TV -- or listening to the radio -- or searching the Internet for tomorrow's weather forecast. knowing it may not be right anyway, get the forecast directly from me. It will always be current and it will always have enough detail for you to make a decision.

The Tropical Cyclones and a Freeze

Ohio is under the gun today with a threat of large hail, wind gusts in excess of 70 mph and tornadoes.

That's ahead of one cold front. Another cold front will sweeping out of Canada tomorrow bringing with it a hard freeze to northeast North Dakota and northern Minnesota Friday night. Northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Upper Michigan will have a hard freeze Saturday night.
Tropical storm Karl will reach Tampico around midnight tonight. Hurricane Igor will reach Bermuda Monday and Julia will pick up a little speed as she continues to lag to the east of Igor.

Heavy Rain, Severe Storms and a Freeze

There's all sorts of weather coming up in the next couple of days. Igor is headed for Bermuda this weekend, a small tropical low will move west across the Yucatan Peninsula - and that's just for starters. There is a threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight from Oklahoma to southeast Montana. Large hail, damaging wind and a tornado or two are the main threats. What may be unusual about this severe weather threat is that it will go well past sunset, which is unusual for this time of year.

There will be areas of heavy rain across the northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Some areas of Iowa and Missouri may get as much as 3 inches.

Cold air will be plunging out of Canada for the weekend. A hard freeze is likely across central Canada, eastern North Dakota, northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan.

On Igor and Freezes

Igor is churning over the central Atlantic Ocean today at about 15 mph. The eye is clearly visible on this morning's satellite image - and as hurricane's go it is a large storm, requiring ships to give it a wide berth.

Right now it looks like Igor will make a turn to the northwest and head towards Bermuda arriving there Friday. It will then swing up towards Newfoundland for the weekend. The storm will miss the U.S. but it will affect fishing waters. Igor will then get caught up in the larger area of low pressure over northeast Canada, intensifying the flow of cool air around the backside of the low across western and Central Canada. The threat for freezing temperatures will increase across the northern U.S. through September 23rd, which isn't abnormal for this time of year but it is a call to action for farmers who might not want their cash crops to freeze in the field later this month.

In the longer term, tropical storm formation will continue to be a threat for the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea through early October.  Also, a more significant blast of cold air will approach the U.S. during the second week of October, which may lead to some our first significant snowfalls of the season.

In case you missed it we rolled out new product options last week. Check them out at our online checkout at www.TheOrrStore.com .

Rain Over Texas, Cool Northwest

A quick-moving storm system will zip from the Great Lakes across New England this week bringing (behind hit) a quick punch of chilly air. Meanwhile, much of the Pacific Northwest will be cooler than normal with widely scattered rain showers. A few snow showers will be likely above 9000 feet. Let the snow season begin.

Hermine is going to spread large quantities of rain across the eastern 2/3rds of Texas today. Some areas will see at least 4" of rain in addition to what has already fallen.

The low pressure center itself will track to the north passing just west of Dallas, then loop up across Oklahoma and wind up over Illinois later Thursday and Friday. Moderate rains of 2-4" will fall all along the path.

If you are so inclined, the area where you can subscribe to our services has two features this week. The first one is our monthly service and if you subscribe we'll send you a 4" diameter rain gauge. They are much more accurate than the little lawn or garden rain gauges. The second feature are our t-shirts, mugs, hoodies and more. You can find both at www.TheOrrStore.com .

Earl Will Leave Scars Along the East Coast

Hurricane Earl's eye filled in a little overnight but it is still steaming along at about 30N 75W with winds of 145 mph. Earl will start affecting the Outer Banks around noon EDT, wind gusts will increase to 90 mph on the islands, and rainfall will be 3 to 6 inches. The storm will be over for North Carolia around 6am Friday. The impact farther west will be not be great. Offshore, the storm has been around enough that swells are easily 60 feet.

Earl continues north tomorrow impacting the Delmarva peninsula until 6pm. Winds will be gusting to 80 mph and rainfall may reach 12 inches in as many hours. Long Island will feel the impact by 2pm Friday and then it will hit CT, MA and RI shortly thereafter. 10 inches of rain and wind gusts to 65 mph will be likely, except higher wind gusts will be felt on the east end of Long Island and Cape Cod. The rain spreads across New Hampshire and Maine Friday night with the highest winds along the coast of Maine.Beach erosion will likely be a huge problem with Earl. The wave action is going to be tremendous.
More on the rest of the U.S. later.

We have a new "on-call" service available for those of you who don't need a full-blown weather service but might need a little weather information from time to time.

Earl May Have Issues

Hurricane Earl is east of the Turks and headed to the northwest. By Thursday night it will be bearing down on the Outer Banks of North Carolina with 90mph winds. From there, Earl will head for Long Island, Providence and Boston Friday through Saturday, lashing those areas with heavy rain and wind gusts of about 60 to 70 mph. 

High surf and beach erosion will be the biggest issue from the Outer Banks to the tip of Maine.

Some sector impacts:
Retail:  If the National Weather Service is fairly liberal about issuing hurricane watches and warnings, items such as plywood, duct tape, bottled water and water in 1 gallon jugs, gasoline, generators and batteries will fly off the shelf. Labor Day store sales of clothing could suffer.

Energy: Again, if the National Weather Service splashes hurricane watches and warning up the East Coast, gasoline will probably fall in short supply in some areas as some people gas up and head inland. This will be especially true should hurricane watches and warning be posted from New Jersey to Maine.

Agriculture: New England crops have been running ahead of schedule and perhaps early harvest will save any commodities grown within 25 miles of the coast. Those areas will be prone to heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches if Earl is close enough to shore.

Aviation: The greatest impact will be on overseas flights which may have some problems getting around Earl Friday and Saturday. Airports most likely affected will be Dulles, Baltimore, JFK and Boston. Reagan National, Newark and LaGuardia will have fewer issues because of the domestic nature of their operations. However, airlines who rely on government weather forecasts may have to delay or cancel flights depending on forecast conditions, while airlines with meteorologists on staff may keep flying.

Earl to Head Up The Coast

The weather pattern is getting busy as we wind up August and head into September. The jet stream is diving across the western U.S. bringing in much cooler air and helping to generate showers and thunderstorms. The jet will migrate to the east and head back into Canada for a brief time as the Labor Day weekend approaches.
Showers and thunderstorms will generate locally heavy rainfall along the Gulf coast from Houston to Mobile and Biloxi. Isolated rainfall reports of 1 to 3 inches will be likely.

Hurricane Earl is ENE of Puerto Rico this morning. The current forecast track takes it to near North Carolina Thursday, then to NYC, Boston and Providence on Saturday. Earl will impact the Outer Banks with high surf, high wind and a lot of beach erosion. As far as air travel goes, anyone with plans to fly in or out of Washington D.C., Baltimore, Newark, LaGuardia, JFK, Boston, Providence, Philadelphia or Portland ME ought to think of a different plan - especially Friday night and Saturday- as significant flight delays or cancellations are likely.

Much colder air will swirl into the backside of Earl across New England Sunday and Monday with highs only in the 50s and 60s, and lows in the 30s - if not the upper 20s.

We added more options on our weather forecast services. Check out www.TheOrrStore.com for details.

Significant Weather Through September 12

The start of meteorological autumn is just a few days away and we're starting to see a greater temperature contrast with each advancing cold front.
Cooler than normal air will be over the Pacific Northwest through the end of August and then the temperature will bump up slightly.  It will be very wet along the north-central Gulf coast where up to 3" to 7" of rain will fall from Apalachicola FL to around New Orleans. The hardest hit areas will be around Mobile and Biloxi. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees above normal over a wide swath of the country - from Texas to New Jersey and Delaware. Temperatures will cool to near normal Friday, September 3.

Heavy rain will fall now through September 12 across the Upper Mississippi River Valley and the western Great Lakes. Heavier than normal rainfall is also expected over Colorado and small portions of adjoining states, mainly as scattered showers and thunderstorms. Local 2" to 4" amounts will be possible.

Temperatures will be in the 90s - 8 to 18 degrees above normal - September 5 through 7 across Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, northwest Iowa and northwest Kansas.

Utility Impacts: Air conditioners will continue to run across much of the southeast half of the country. There will be several nights requiring heating across the Pacific Northwest and also far northern New England.

Agriculture: Wet weather will provide more than enough moisture for the central and northern Great Plains. Fields across the north half of Wisconsin and most of Minnesota, northwest Iowa and eastern South Dakota will be too wet to work 8 out of the next 15 days.  Much of the Southeast (except Florida and coastal Gulf of Mexico) will be drier than normal with expanding drought.

Aviation: No significant impacts are expected through September 12.

Construction: Delays are likely for the Upper Mississippi River Valley and western Great Lakes (but not Chicago).  Showery weather across Florida may cause some delays there.

Business Weather

The weather for the next two weeks will be fairly typical for this time of year across the U.S.
Temperatures will be 4 to 7 degrees above normal across North Dakota, South Dakota, western Nebraska, eastern Wyoming and most of Minnesota through August 30.

Temperatures will be near normal across most of the country August 31 to September 5. The warmest areas will be West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Ohio, Indiana and eastern Kentucky - where temperatures will be 2 to 5 degrees above normal.  A large swath of the country will have above normal temperatures - from the Mid-Atlantic states to the central Rockies - with temperatures averaging 4 to 8 degrees above normal.
Demand for air-conditioning will remain high across south of a line from Denver to Des Moines, Chicago, Cleveland to Philadelphia.
Transportation
There shouldn't be a major impact on transportation through September 10. Hurricanes Danielle and soon-to-be Earl will be well out to sea and they'll be fairly easy to forecast, limiting impact on trans-Atlantic shipping. The biggest problem will be that the two storms will be close to each other, allowing only about a three day window of opportunity to cross their paths. The storms will impact Europe late next week with heavy rain and gusty wind.
Agriculture
Fields will be in good condition for harvest across most of the corn and soybean growing areas.  Heavier rains will return to Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Nebraska September 1 to 10 with up to 3 inches in some areas - especially across Minnesota. The rain will limit fieldwork to 4 of the 10 days.
Retail
The above normal temperatures will have a possible impact on fall clothing sales as high temperatures in the 80s and 90s play a psychological role in the desire to buy sweaters, coats and other heavier clothing. Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland will have 4 days out of the next 15 when morning lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s and daytime highs will be in the 70s, possibly helping people to feel the need to buy fall items.

Construction
The heavier rain across the Upper Midwest will limit the number of working days for outdoor construction. No other impacts are expected.

Heat Returns and a Soon-to-be Hurricane

There are a couple of big weather makers this morning. Certainly Danielle and soon-to-be Earl are going to be big hurricanes, but they are out in the middle of the ocean and really will only affect Europe later next week. Also, the heat will be building across the U.S. this week. There will be heavy rain over N Florida today and tomorrow; over the NW Gulf Coast this weekend.

The End of Summer

The storm is very well defined and should be upgraded to a hurricane. The current track takes it toward Bermuda for the weekend. The central pressure will dive bomb and this will likely be the strongest storm in years. It will head for Greenland next week and could be a huge problem for Europe after that.

Otherwise... it is a typical August weather pattern with hot temperatures and very few severe thunderstorms.

Flooding Rains for Wisconsin, Iowa and Illinois

It looks like a lot of rain this afternoon and tonight for northern Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. spotty 3 to 7 inch amounts will be reported and flooding is likely. This will not only cause a problem for urban areas but also for farm field work.

We fine-tuned client forecasts.

Cooler North, Tropical System Along Gulf Coast

Headlines from New England to the Upper Mississippi Valley this morning are about the cooler temperatures. The Deep South is still hot and muggy - and will likely stay that way through Labor Day.

A low pressure center is located about 30 miles south of Panama City this morning. Winds associated with it are light but will gradually increase as the low moves to the west. New Orleans will see the storm tomorrow - with heavy rain, winds of 15 to 30 mph and a few gusts to 45 mph from the south as the storm passes by. Heavy rains of 6-8" will be likely along the coasts of Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana.

New Mexico, west Texas, western Oklahoma and western Kansas and Colorado will get some heavy rain through tonight. Local amounts of 3" will be possible.

The cornbelt just can't seem to get out of the heavy rain this year. If it keeps up... corn prices may actually increase because it will be difficult to work the fields.

Tropical Storm Development is Likely

Thunderstorms will develop into a low pressure center near Apalachicola, Fla. today and rapidly strengthen Monday. The central pressure will reach 1006mb, capable of 40 mph wind, Monday evening. The low will then track westward, offshore, heading to the southeast Louisiana coast. By Tuesday afternoon the low will be 25 miles south of New Orleans with a central pressure of about 1002mb and wind gusts approaching 50 mph. The storm is expected to further strengthen to 998mb Wednesday as it reaches Beaumont, Tex. At that point it will be a strong tropical storm.

The most significant impacts will be on the northwest and west sides of the the storm, after the low pressure center passes. Those areas will contain the strongest wind, and the southerly flow will enhance tide and wave action. Seas offshore Alabama and Louisiana will likely peak at 10 to 15 feet with isolated 20 foot waves.

This will be a very compact storm, so any damage will be limited to about a 25 mile radius of the center. Forecasting its path will be critical to forecasting areas exposed to potential damage. Businesses relying on National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts will likely be caught off guard by this storm - the NHC pegged the probability of development at 20% as of Sunday morning, when the actual likelihood for development is closer to 80% or 90%.

Thunder and Heat

Is the issue of the day (A) thunderstorms, (B) heat or (C) a potential tropical storm?  Oh, wait; it's August 2010 - so it must be all three. Again.

The jet stream arcs from southern California across Wyoming to Lake Winnipeg this morning. Once again, a large cluster of thunderstorms is rolling across the north-central part of the country, leaving 1 to 3 inches of rain across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska overnight. Scattered flood advisories are in effect. The thunderstorms will be a severe weather and flood threat today and tonight to Minnesota and Iowa. Tomorrow they will be a problem for parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

It's hot over the middle of the country once again and the lack of airflow, typical for August, is becoming a larger and larger issue, especially for urban settings. The good news is that a cool front will mix the air on Saturday and even though there won't be a dramatic drop in temperature, at least the air will be moving. That will be the message of hope for the day.

There are two tropical systems this morning. One is just southwest of Ft. Myers, Florida. The other is 800 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

The one over the Gulf of Mexico doesn't have a lot of upper air support, so it looks like it will meander to the north-northwest as a weak low. It will either track to the Mississippi delta or head inland across the Florida panhandle at the the end of the week. Meanwhile, the one over the Atlantic will likely spin up in speed. It is questionable whether it will become TS Danielle. It will likely depend on how badly the National Hurricane Center needs another named storm.

A significant change in the weather is coming up for the northern tier of states this weekend as another push of cool air comes down out of Canada, this one farther west than the previous two (which primarily affected New England and the eastern Great Lakes).

Thunderstorms and Heat

This morning we're watching a couple of clusters of thunderstorms. The first one is rolling across the Midwest. It looks like Michigan, northern Indiana and northern Ohio will take the brunt of the thunderstorms. An series of upper air disturbances will keep thunderstorms going across southern Wisconsin, Iowa and northern Illinois today. Local rainfall in all of these areas will total 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts.


The next are with severe thunderstorms today will be across Nebraska and northern Kansas. These thunderstorms will also affect Iowa and northern Missouri.

Heat is a problem across the central part of the country. There's plenty of sunshine... and plenty of humidity. There will be some break in the heat over the weekend.

There is a tropical low drifting westward across Florida (B) which will produce heavy rain in clusters of thunderstorms. The low will track toward Louisiana. There is a low pressure area out in the Atlantic (A) that could become TS Danielle on Wednesday.

The low / potential tropical storm is going to struggle against the fairly strong Bermuda high. Right now it doesn't look like it will be an issue for the U.S. to deal with.

A New Product Just For You

We are unleashing a new service today - your personal weather forecast. 

We'll send them to you either as a text message, via Facebook if you "like" us, by email or we can also send a DM to your Twitter. Twitter and text messages are, of course, limited by 140 characters.

Now, the forecasts aren't a rehash of National Weather Service forecasts or computer models. You'll get our our own forecasts for a 5 mile radius around your location. We've been forecasting for small areas like that for a couple of decades. But if you are traveling or have a special need you can always contact us.

There is a catch. The service isn't free. We're charging $9.95 a month if you choose to be billed monthly. Or, $49.95 for an annual subscription (which works out to a little more than $4.16 a month).

Here's how the Facebook forecast would look:
Showers and thunderstorms are going to develop this afternoon with the heat of the day. An upper air disturbance will strengthen the storms, so expect some to be severe with hail up to 2" in diameter and wind gusts up to 95mph. Today's high 89-94, wind will be S-SE 12-22mph.  The best chance for rain will be after 1pm with up to 0.50" by 6pm.

Showers and thunderstorms will wind down around 10pm although there will be a couple of isolated thunderstorms hanging on until daybreak. Low 62-66.  Rainfall 0.01"-0.15".

Saturday.. expect a few afternoon and evening t-storms, mainly between 2pm and 8pm. High 90-95, wind N to NE 8 to 16mph. Rainfall will be less than 0.10".
Sunday.... a better chance of afternoon t-storms. High 89-94, wind E 10-15mph.

So, as you can see the forecast has more detail than the typical forecast.

We'd love to have you on board. You can subscribe by mail, or you can use Google Checkout, or you can use PayPal. Just go here to sign up today!

Colin, Thunderstorms and the Monsoon

There are a number of forecast problems for today. Let's start with the continental U.S.

Thunderstorms over the Great Lakes - Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and southern Michigan - have not been predicted very well by the computer models.  It looks like a potential for another 0.50" to 2.00" over the same area tonight through Wednesday. That will raise the issue of additional flooding.The monsoon is continuing over the West with a daily threat of flash flooding from the heavier thunderstorms. It appears the heaviest rain will fall on Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona and eastern Utah through Thursday.

The next forecast issue is tropical storm Colin. Colin is moving and developing as anticipated (so far!).  It looks like it will track across the northeast side of the Bahamas, heading for Jacksonville Florida. It looks like it will be a minimal hurricane of 70-80mph. It should curve sharply to the north and northeast as it approaches Florida and Georgia to follow the Gulf Stream. But - if Colin is compact enough it might zip inland and die a quick death ala "Bonnie". We're closely following this situation and feel Wednesday will be decision day.

Which leads us to consider the next storm.
There are two significant tropical waves moving across Africa about 2 days apart. Either one could be the next storm - which would be "Danielle". Our feeling is that the next storm will go across the Caribbean Sea and then move across the Gulf of Mexico.

On the somewhat longer term, we're tackling the abrupt end to summer's heat that is coming up in just 2 weeks. The change will brighten heat-and-humidity weary areas of the country. Our newsletters are the source for that information right now.

A Weekend Hurricane and a Break in the Heat

There is a tropical depression about 1100 miles west of the Cape Verde islands this morning at about 12N 41W. This depression will intensify into a tropical storm and then a minimal hurricane this week. It looks like it will reach the Bahamas Saturday and the north coast of Florida on Monday. Right now we are predicting winds of 90 mph over the Bahamas and 75-80 mph at U.S. landfall (assuming it misses Puerto Rico, which is not yet a given).

The low that may become "Danielle" will be quick on the heels of Colin, only a couple of days apart.

The monsoon continues over the West with pockets of very heavy rain across Arizona, New Mexico, the southeast half of Utah and Colorado. A threat for flash floods continues across the region.

It looks like the big heat that has been gripping the South and East will break around August 15th with a noticeable drop in temperatures.

A Look at 3 Weeks in August

On of the great things about forecasting the weather is being able to look at a wealth of information that allows me to peer a few weeks and months into the future.

July isn't quite over, yet I already have a pretty good idea what the first three weeks of August will be like.

The central part of the country is going to be hot with highs in the 90s to low 100s from Denver to Nashville and from Sioux Falls to Brownsville. The southern Great Plains will be drier than normal while the rest of the country holds with near-normal rainfall.  The monsoon will continue across the West with afternoon and evening flare-ups of thunderstorms.

Most of the country will have light winds which will allow a buildup of haze and smog.

There will be an increasing chance of a tropical storm. One area that looks prime is the eastern Caribbean Sea, the other is the Gulf of Mexico.  The threat picks up after August 8 as the general weather pattern weakens giving a tropical storm the chance to become a dominant force.

The Northeast and the Great Lakes will be getting occasional pushes of natural air-conditioning after a long, hot late spring and summer. The cool air is beginning to pool in northern Canada and will make occasional incursions into the northeast quarter of the U.S.

A Cool, Damp Autumn

A ribbon of warmer than normal water across the North Pacific may be setting the stage for a wetter than normal and cooler than normal fall for Canada and much of the northern U.S. The warmer than normal water

stretches from Japan to 50N 140W. Temperatures within the band are 2C to 4C above normal. To the north is a narrow band of cooler than normal temperatures. There are two potential implications for this pattern. The first is to allow the jetstream to dive south across North America, dragging cooler than normal air south from the Arctic. The second is a path for the remnants of typhoons which will migrate along or just south of the jet stream while continuing to feed off of the above normal sea surface temperatures.  It looks like it will be an interesting late summer and fall.

Severe Weather Outbreak
Central Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan are under the gun today and tonight for tornadoes, torrential flooding rain, large hail and damaging wind. Some of the tornadoes may be large and a few areas will get more than 2 inches of rain (up to 5 inches).

Heavy rain will continue through Wednesday across east and central Texas. Flooding will continue to be a problem as another 2 to 5 inches of rain comes down in some areas.

The monsoon is well underway with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms across a large portion of the West. Days start out sunny, then thunderstorms flair up between noon and 2pm, dying out between midnight and 3am. The cycle will continue for a while.